MLB Opening Day Best Bets | March 27, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Thu Mar 27, 2025, 14:36 PM
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Opening Day is here, and we are wasting no time attacking two mispriced props. The Rangers bring an elite lineup into a favorable matchup, while Paul Skenes, one of the best young arms in baseball, faces a strikeout-heavy Marlins team. Both plays offer strong value, and with these numbers likely to move, now is the time to jump in.
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Red Sox vs Rangers Best Bet
Can the Rangers return to their winning ways in 2025?
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To kick off the MLB season, we are going right back to a prop that worked well for us in 2024—first five-inning team totals. This year’s first play features the fully loaded Texas Rangers against new Red Sox starter Garrett Crochet.
The Rangers have three elite-graded hitters, according to Batters-Box.com, with zero rated as poor and only two hitters above the league ground ball rate. Texas has the highest average hitter grade, which Batters-Box.com classifies as “Great,” just a notch below “Elite.” On top of that, they also have the highest average hitter matchup hard contact percentage.
This is a Rangers team that averaged 2.32 runs in the first five innings per game in 2024, and they only improved this offseason with added lineup depth. This looks like a misprice and should be at the standard 2.5 line. Yes, it is Crochet, but new team, new season, new expectations. The Rangers should have enough opportunities to go over two runs in the first five innings.
Best Bet: Rangers First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-125)
Pirates vs Marlins Best Bet
Will there be a sophomore slump for Paul Skenes?
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It is Opening Day, and we are backing one of the best arms in the game to surpass 6.5 strikeouts.
Paul Skenes holds the highest pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com, graded as “Elite,” and takes the mound against the Miami Marlins. Their lineup features zero elite-rated hitters, three rated as poor, and nine hitters above the league strikeout rate. When facing a lineup with an average hitter strikeout rating graded as elite, Skenes surpasses 6.5 strikeouts 68.42% of the time over a 19-game sample size.
In 2024, the Marlins ranked 17th in strikeout rate, and they should be even worse this season. Full transparency—I just looked at their lineup and could not stop laughing. No names worth noting. Hopefully, Skenes comes out firing in Miami. I was shocked this number opened at 6.5, expecting 8.5, so if you like this prop, act fast!
Best Bet: Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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