MLB Opening Day 2022 Betting Trends: Braves a Likely Loser?

For a few months, it looked like we would not see MLB action in April, due to the lockout that began after the season ended last year. But all’s well that ends well, and while Opening Day is indeed later than it was originally scheduled to be, the 2022 MLB season will open on Thursday, April 7, with a seven-game slate.

For every team in the league, the ultimate aspiration is to win a championship, whether that goal will be attainable this year, next year, or five years from now.

Last season, the Atlanta Braves achieved that goal, ending the franchise’s 26-year wait for a World Series title as they defeated the Houston Astros in a six-game series.

With Matt Olson and not Freddie Freeman manning first base, things will look a bit different for the Braves this season. But they will have their sights set on becoming the first team to win back-to-back World Series titles since the New York Yankees did so in 1998 and 1999, and they start the season with the fifth-best 2022 World Series odds (+1200 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

But will the reigning champions open the new season with a win? To open the season, the Braves will host the Cincinnati Reds (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2).

Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves April 7 Pitching Matchup and MLB Betting Odds

Braves vs. Reds Pitching Matchup

• Cincinnati Reds: RHP Tyler Mahle (13-6, 3.75 ERA in 2021)
• Atlanta Braves: LHP Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA in 2021)

Braves vs. Reds Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds +168, Atlanta Braves -200
• Total: OVER 8 (-118), UNDER 8 (-104)
• Run Line: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-120), Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+100)

Odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook.

Recent MLB Opening Day Trends Don’t Bode Well for Braves

While the Braves are heavily favored for their Opening Day showdown with the Reds, recent MLB Opening Day trends don’t favor a positive start for the defending World Series champions.

Opening Day Results for Recent World Series Champions

• 2020: Los Angeles Dodgers: lost 8-5 at Colorado Rockies in 2021 season opener
• 2019: Washington Nationals: lost 4-1 vs. New York Yankees in 2020 opener
• 2018: Boston Red Sox: lost 12-4 at Seattle Mariners in 2019 opener
• 2017: Houston Astros: won 4-1 at Texas Rangers in 2018 opener
• 2016: Chicago Cubs: lost 4-3 at St. Louis Cardinals in 2017 opener
• 2015: Kansas City Royals: won 4-3 vs. New York Mets in 2016 opener
• 2014: San Francisco Giants: won 5-4 at Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015 opener
• 2013: Boston Red Sox: lost 2-1 at Baltimore Orioles in 2014 opener
• 2012: San Francisco Giants: lost 4-0 at Los Angeles Dodgers in 2013 opener
• 2011: St. Louis Cardinals: won 4-1 at Marlins in 2012 opener
• 2010: San Francisco Giants: lost 2-1 at Dodgers in 2011 opener
• 2009: New York Yankees: lost 9-7 at Boston Red Sox in 2010 opener
• 2008: Philadelphia Phillies: lost 4-1 vs. Atlanta Braves in 2009 opener
• 2007: Boston Red Sox: lost 6-5 vs. Oakland A’s in 2008 opener (in Tokyo, Japan)
• 2006: St. Louis Cardinals: lost 6-1 vs. New York Mets in 2007 opener

So, only four of the previous 15 defending World Series champions won their first game of the new MLB season: the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals, 2015 San Francisco Giants, 2016 Kansas City Royals, and 2018 Houston Astros.

On a positive note, however, three of those four teams did go on to make the playoffs. The 2012 Cardinals lost to the Giants in the NLCS, the 2015 Giants lost to the Cubs in the NLDS, and the 2018 Astros lost to the Red Sox in the NLCS. The Royals were the only team to miss the playoffs, as they finished 81-81 in the 2016 season.

Is the Under the Play in Atlanta?

It is also worth noting that Opening Day results for defending World Series champions have mostly been low-scoring games, with 10 of 15 games featuring seven or fewer runs. That should come as no real surprise, given the pitching matchups that take place.

If you bet on this matchup, that makes the under the more favorable MLB betting pick, and 2021 season and career splits for Mahle and Fried back that up as well.

• Mahle started 18 road games in 2021. In 11 of the 18 road games he started, there were eight or fewer runs. Mahle was 8-2 with a 2.30 ERA on the road last season (5-4, 5.63 ERA in 15 home starts).
• There were eight or fewer runs in only five of Fried’s 14 home starts, but he posted a 2.94 ERA in his home starts last season and has a 3.04 ERA at home in his MLB career.
• Mahle has a significantly better ERA on the road than at home in his MLB career. At home, he has a 5.02 ERA, while he has a 3.72 ERA on the road.