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MLB Must Bet Props: Wild Card Props | October 2, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Hump Day!
The Must Bet Props are back!
After a hot start to the postseason, we’re ready for Day 2. There’s a lot of value and plenty of plays to take advantage of, and I’ve found a couple to kick off our day.
I’ll be sharing all my postseason plays on my Twitter/X account until the season wraps up, so stay tuned! You can find me at @C_Marchio2.
Let’s dive into the plays and make it another amazing day!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 2-0
2024 MLB Season: +17.32 Units
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114)
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Astros stud Yordan Alvarez admiring the missile he sent to Mars
The top-rated hitter on Batters-Box.com today is the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez. After going 2-for-4 with a double in yesterday’s 3-1 loss to the Tigers, Alvarez and the Astros are eager to bounce back in Game 2.
Alvarez’s trends are impressive. When he has an elite rating, the 27-year-old left-hander gets at least one hit 71.79% of the time, goes over 1.5 total bases 51.28% of the time, and hits home runs 23.08% of the time. In his last ten games with elite ratings, he’s surpassed 1.5 total bases five times and recorded at least one hit six times.
Today, he faces Tigers starter Reese Olson, who boasts valuable breaking pitches—his sinker is valued at 7.0 and his slider at 10.7. However, Alvarez has fared well against both, batting above .260 with an OPS over .725 and a wRC+ above 118 against them. Olson has struggled recently, posting a 6.75 ERA in September and allowing seven runs on nine hits in 9.1 innings.
The value is there for Alvarez, and with the Astros needing a bounce-back win, he’s poised to deliver. I’m all in on Yordan Alvarez today!
Brewers F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-160)
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The Brew Crew is looking to bounce back after yesterday’s Game 1 loss to the Mets. Today, they face Mets starter Sean Manaea, who has the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. He’s giving up the second most hard contact to opposing hitters and has one of the highest average ISO matchups in the league.
The Brewers lineup features three elite-rated hitters, with no poorly rated players and six who exceed the league’s strikeout rate. They faced Manaea just last Friday, scoring six runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings. While it’s a small sample size, the Brewers are hitting .326 with an OPS of 1.044 against the 32-year-old left-hander.
Milwaukee’s offense has been consistently strong in the first five innings, averaging 2.85 runs per game, and 2.82 at home. With a win needed in Game 2, their bats should come alive against a pitcher they’re already familiar with.
Sprinkle of the day
- Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+330)
- Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+700)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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