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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Total Bases & Home Runs | September 6, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Friday!
The weekend is here, and I’ve found three standout props to kick off your betting. Check out these must-bet picks to start your weekend strong.
Let’s make the most of it!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up 0-2 up -2.0 Units.
Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
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Phillies Stud Kyle Schwarber fired up after double
The Stank:
We’re wrapping up the week and kicking off the weekend by fading Marlins pitcher Edward Cabrera.
Cabrera is rated as one of the worst pitchers on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. He has struggled all year, with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed teams to score over 2.5 runs in eight of his 16 starts and has been particularly ineffective on the road, where his ERA climbs to 6.69 and he gives up an average of 3.37 runs.
The Phillies come into this game with the highest-rated offense on Batters-Box.com, boasting four elite-rated hitters. Their lineup is primed for a strong performance against a team that allows the most runs in the first five innings.
Philadelphia’s offense ranks seventh in runs per first five innings, averaging 2.75 runs per game. At home, they average 3.08 runs, while the Marlins allow 3.06 runs in the same timeframe. This sets up a great opportunity for the Phillies to capitalize and score early and often.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
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The Stank:
Today, Yordan Alvarez is rated the top hitter on Batters-Box.com. While the top of the list usually features stars like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, I’m particularly excited when a new face claims the top spot—and today, Alvarez is that standout.
Alvarez has been in a slump recently, going 3-for-15 in his last four games, with those three hits being a double and two home runs, all recorded on Sunday and Monday. He hasn’t had a hit since then, making him a prime candidate to break out of his slump.
He’s facing Arizona Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has struggled in his last four starts, allowing 19 runs and 33 hits in 22.2 innings pitched.
Given Pfaadt’s current struggles, Alvarez has the perfect opportunity to bounce back. I’m taking the big lefty to hit his bases prop as we kick off the weekend.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+275)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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