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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Total Bases, Home Runs | September 5, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Thursday!
Must-bet props are back! While many are shifting focus to football, we’re committed to baseball until the end. Here are a couple of diamond plays to kickstart your weekend!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up 2-2 up +1.98 Units.
Thank you!
Matt Wallner 1+ Hit (+115) ✅
Over 1.5 Total Bases (+255) ✅If you spot a mispriced prop, don’t be afraid of it. Ever. pic.twitter.com/h3Zjg5FU9t
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 5, 2024
Braves F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-130)
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Jorge Soler is one of the Braves six elite rated hitters today
The Stank:
The Atlanta Braves are back with another favorable matchup against the Colorado Pebbles, sorry Rockies.
The Braves will face Austin Gomber, who has the third-worst pitcher rating today according to Batters-Box.com. Gomber also allows the second-most hard contact on the slate, only behind Rays starter Taj Bradley. This season, Gomber has a 4.69 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, and he’s allowed over 2.5 runs in 14 of his 26 starts.
The Braves’ offense is in excellent form, featuring six elite-rated hitters: Soler, Olson, Duvall, d’Arnaud, Murphy, and Arcia. They have no poorly-rated hitters and none who exceed the league strikeout rate for this matchup. Although Atlanta hasn’t been the most impressive team in the first five innings, they average 2.55 runs at home.
The Braves are fighting for a playoff spot and need to secure these winnable games. They’re currently just half a game ahead of the Mets for the third NL Wild Card spot. Look for them to sweep the Rockies tonight with their bats blazing.
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
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The Stank:
Another prop bet seems mispriced: Mr. Royce Lewis to go over his bases prop. He’s been on a hot streak lately, hitting .357 with an OPS of 1.043 this month and currently riding a six-game hitting streak. While it’s possible he could go 0-for-4 tonight, his matchup is too promising to ignore.
Lewis faces Rays starter Taj Bradley, who has been one of the most inconsistent pitchers this season. The 23-years old thrives at home, but in his last two home starts, he has allowed 16 hits and 14 runs. He tends to give up a lot of hard contact, so there is a good chance Lewis could take advantage of that.
ROYCE. LEWIS. pic.twitter.com/JE5IqUGyqM
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 1, 2024
On Batters-Box.com, Lewis is ranked as the number three hitter today. With an elite rating, he goes over 1.5 bases 57.14% of the time and hits a home run 35.71% of the time, based on a sample size of 28 ratings.
Given the value and how well Lewis is seeing the ball, this is a great spot to back the Twins’ third baseman. Let’s hope the trend continues this afternoon.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Royce Lewis Home Run (+420)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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