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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Strikeouts | June 22, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The best day of the week has finally arrived, Saturday. A day filled with sports, relaxation, and cashed bets.
Let me share a couple of exciting plays from the Diamondbacks vs Phillies game that I couldn’t help but fall in love with this morning. This particular matchup was talking to me all morning. The stats were too juicy to look away.
Let’s have another fantastic weekend!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Last night’s card hurt a little, but only losing 1.1 units going 2-4-1 feels a little better.
Today is a new day. We rise. We grind.
Strikeout Prop: Tommy Henry Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+126)
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Arizona Diamondbacks starter, Tommy Henry
The Stank:
Diamondbacks starter Tommy Henry has a lot on his plate Saturday afternoon in Philadelphia. Facing the highest-rated team on both Batters-Box.com’s default (last three seasons) and current season ratings. Arizona has four elite hitters with zero poor-rated hitters and only one hitter above the league average strikeout rate.
Henry has the worst pitcher rating in both timeframes on today’s docket. On top of that, his average hitter matchup strikeout rating is well below the league average set at 15.72%, and the league average is around 20%.
Although, the Phillies are middle of the pack when it comes to strikeout rate. This will not be a major factor since Henry gives up a ton of hard contact. Today, he has the highest average hitter hard contact percentage, with 46.4%. The fact that the top nine Phillies make hard contact almost 50% of the time is not just impressive; it’s mouthwatering for any baseball fan.
The low number is scary, and Henry has only surpassed it in a few games this season. However, it has come against teams that struggle with striking out: the Cubs, Cardinals, and Rockies.
I do not expect Mr. Henry to make it to the fifth inning.
Team Total: Phillies First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-145)
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The Stank:
This will be my bread and butter for the MLB season. I love first five team totals.
As stated above, everything is pointing toward the Phillies having a monstrous afternoon. Tommy Henry has the worst pitcher rating in both Batters-Box.com ratings, allowing the highest hard contact percentage and having a drastically low average hitter matchup strikeout percentage.
My favorite stat about Philadelphia’s matchup today is that they have four elite hitters in the default ratings and seven in the current season ratings. Having more than 50% of your lineup with elite ratings is insane.
The Phillies have been the best scoring team in the first five innings all season long, averaging an impressive 3.02 runs per game. And at home, it gets even better, they average a thrilling 3.25 runs per game. Arizona, on the other hand, allows the ninth most runs in the first five innings with 2.67 per game.
There is no need to overthink this play. The stats are right in front of us. Go Phils.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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