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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Sides | June 19, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Hump Day and Happy Juneteenth!
There are so many games and so much to like, so I will keep it simple for you. Here are three plays that should cure your entire day of baseball cravings.
Let’s have a day!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
The week has been good to use thus far, since Sunday I am 7-4 (+5.3U) Overall betting on MLB, WNBA, NBA, and NHL.
Team Total: Diamondbacks F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-130)
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Arizona Diamondbacks stud, Ketel Marte rounding the bases after a nuke
The Stank:
Over in our nation’s capital, there is a national holiday being celebrated at Nationals Park, Patrick Corbin Day; you may have heard about it through your degenerate cousin, but it is a huge holiday for some. People flock from all over the country to celebrate this marvelous holiday that comes around every five days.
Happy Patrick Corbin Day to all those who celebrate 🎉⚾️
— ACL-Sports.com®–Sports Investor (@TheRealMrACL) June 19, 2024
Entering today, Corbin has the third-worst pitcher rating, according to Batters-Box.com. Along with that he has to take on the Diamondbacks, a team that has the third highest average hitter matchup rating, which is graded as elite. A full offense with an average elite rating is mouthwatering.
This season, the Nationals starter has been his usual self, posting a 5.84 ERA along with a 1.62 WHIP. He has allowed teams to surpass 2.5 runs in eight of his 14 starts this season.
Arizona’s team average vs. Corbin is a solid .281, with an OPS of .751. Eugenio Suarez, Randal Grichuk, and Kevin Newman have the largest sample size against the 34-year-old left-hander. Suarez has had the most success, with eight hits in 21 plate appearances and an OPS of 1.006.
The Diamondbacks have been one of the better teams in the first five innings, averaging the third most with 3.05 per game and 2.78 on the road. In their last three games, they are averaging 5.33 runs. Hopefully, Arizona can get after Corbin early and often, so this can be a sweet mid-afternoon win for us.
Team Total: Twins F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-160) 2 Unit Play
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The Stank:
As with the bet above, we are taking full advantage of pitchers with awful matchups today. Tamps Bay Rays Starter Taj Bradley comes in today with the worst pitcher matchup rating on Batters-Box.com. Minnesota has the highest average hitter matchup rating, having six elite hitters along, most notable being Royce Lewis, who is the highest-rated hitter on today’s slate. The Twins also have zero hitters above league ground ball rate and the highest hard contact rate.
Today marked Royce Lewis’s 81st career game. His 162-game pace numbers are just absolutely ridiculous to this point:
– 46 HR
– 132 RBI
– 102 R
– 12 SB
– .318/.371/.599/.970 pic.twitter.com/vsY9UPDcjz— Louis Addeo-Weiss (@addeo_louis00) June 16, 2024
In the seven starts Bradley has made this season, he has allowed over 1.5 runs in four games. This is a significant statistic, considering the Twins’ average, which surpasses this number both at home and on the road. At home, their performance is particularly impressive, scoring an average of 2.65 runs per game.
Bradley has had his ups and downs all season and has not been very consistent, so I will happily ride this play, especially for a team with six elite hitters in both the default and current ratings. Trust the process, and let’s enjoy some runs!
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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