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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Player Props | April 25, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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After a solid day of betting on baseball, we are back for more. Here are my favorite bets on Friday’s Jr. MLB slate. I am attacking only one game today, but I am sure you will fall inin love with it the same way I did after peeping at this scribble.
Let’s sweep!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Three weeks into the MLB regular season, I am currently down BAD -13.27 units. The season is so young the numbers are not there yet. I need the middle of May already.
Please, remember to gamble responsibly, there is not need to be insane like Shohei’s translator.
Team Prop: Twins Over 4.5 Runs (-115) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
My favorite day of the week, Mike Soroka Day. The new Patrick Corbin Day.
Mr. Soroka has allowed 28 hits and 20 runs in his first five starts this season. His ERA is a disappointing 7.50, and he has an unappealing WHIP of 1.79. Today, he faces a lineup that, according to Batters-Box.com, has six elite-rated hitters. The Twins have nine hitters with at least a “Great” rating in today’s matchup against Soroka.
guys i think mike soroka stinks
— adam in black ⚪️⚫️ (@a_jb_m) April 20, 2024
Minnesota’s bats may not have been the most impressive this season, scoring just over three runs a game. However, in their last three games, they have shown significant improvement, averaging 6.33 runs. With the Twins’ key players boasting at least a “Great” rating today, there is a strong possibility that they will surpass this number, especially considering Soroka’s struggles on the mound this year.
MLB Prop Bets: Trevor Larnach 1+ Hit (-155) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
I told you, Soroka Day is my favorite. You have to take full advantage of the day. You already know how awful Mr. Soroka has been to start the year, so let’s dive into Mr. Trevor Larnach.
Batting a staggering .350, with an OPS of 1.167 and a pair of home runs. He has been scorching hot for the Twins and recorded six hits in his last five games. Going over 2+ hits in two of those five games.
trevor larnach made adjustments
🚫 not starting open
🚫 not nearly as much movement into his launch positionv small sample size but good signs so far compared to last year
miss%
37% ➡️ 32%exit velo
90.1 ➡️ 95.2contact% vs breaking balls
49.5 ➡️ 75.0 https://t.co/L5dPWCTHjb pic.twitter.com/CaAn7SuRHj— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) April 24, 2024
The Twins outfielder crushes the majority of Soroka’s pitches, and the ones he has not done well against this year, he did well against them in 2023. Plus, it’s Mike Soroka. His pitches are well below league average in terms of value.
He is also the number one hitter on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings (Not the default ratings). The rating is a jaw-dropping 0.820; for reference, Larnach’s teammate, Byron Buxton, is the number one hitter on the default ratings. His rating is only .584. One of the main reasons is Buxton has been rated over the last three seasons, and Larnach has only been rated based on this season’s stats. Regardless, at -155 odds for one of the hottest hitters on the Twins roster to record a hit against one of the worst pitchers in the league. I will take that ten times out of ten.
Where to find more advanced analytics.
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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