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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Home Runs | October 13, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameHappy Sunday!
Welcome to the NLCS! Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers are hosting the New York Mets. This series promises to be intriguing, with Jack Flaherty on the mound for the Dodgers—he hasn’t had a good outing in over a month. On the flip side, the Mets are starting Kodai Senga, who showed impressive dominance against the Phillies in the NLDS. It should be a fantastic Game 1! Let’s dive into the props!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Saturday’s write up went 0-1.
Mets First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-115)
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Mark Vientos is geared up for another big game in Los Angeles
Predictable as always, but when the Dodgers’ rotation’s weakest link is on the mound, I’m going straight to my bread and butter: first five team totals. Today, I’m on the Mets over 1.5 runs in the first five innings against Jack Flaherty, who’s been struggling for over a month. Since September 14, he’s allowed 14 runs and 18 hits in just 19.1 innings across four starts. The 28-year-old right-hander has given up 2+ runs in 17 of his 28 starts this season.
Today, he’s facing two elite-rated Mets hitters in Mark Vientos and Pete Alonso, with zero poor hitters and eight hitters above league strikeout rate. While Flaherty has an elite strikeout rate today, the Mets’ bats have come alive when needed despite striking out a lot this postseason.
On the road, the Mets have been better all season, averaging over 2.5 runs in the first five innings. With Vientos hitting safely 78% of the time and Alonso at 80% in elite-rated games, they’re the keys to cashing this first five over.
Give me the Mets over 1.5 runs in the first five innings.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Mark Vientos Home Run (+400)
- Pete Alonso Home Run (+400)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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