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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Home Runs | June 24, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Monday, you sick degenerates!
There is so much on the slate tonight: Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final and 12 MLB games. Yes, I am aware that it’s a game 7 under tonight. I have that locked in as well.
Rest assured, I’ve got what you need to satisfy your baseball cravings. Here are today’s plays from the diamond.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Another solid weekend going up +15.0 units.
Let’s keep this energy going!
Team Total: Mariners First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-135)
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Julio Rodriguez batting against the Tigers tonight
The Stank:
Heading back to my bread and butter, first five team totals.
Today, we have a golden opportunity to exploit one of the most unfavorable pitcher matchups on the slate. The Rays’ starting pitcher, Taj Bradley, enters the game with the second-worst pitcher rating, according to Batters-Box.com. This should give us confidence in the Seattle Mariners, who are tied for the highest average hitter matchup rating today, boasting an impressive six elite hitters in the default ratings and five in the current season.
Bradley has allowed two runs in five of his eight starts this season. Allowing in back-to-back games against the Twins and Cubs. Two teams that are not the greatest at scoring early.
Although Seattle is bottom in first-five scoring, they have been on a bit of a tear lately, averaging 3.67 in their last three games.
When an entire line-up’s average hitter rating is graded as “Elite,” just ride it out.
Mariners over 1.5 runs in the first five.
Side: Royals F5 Alt Spread (-1.5) (+100)
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The Stank:
We are going to keep this one nice and simple. There is no need to overthink it or waste our time with the whole game spread. The Royals are at home, hosting the Marlins. Kansas City plays much better at home, and with the Marlins’ struggling starter, Roddery Munoz, they should feast on his mistakes.
Munoz has the fourth-worst pitcher rating today on Batters-Box.com, taking on the third-highest average hitter matchup rating. Three of the top six players on Batters-Box.com are Royals hitters. The Royals offense consumes the top ten hitters in this matchup, having eight, while the Marlins have only two.
Screenshot from the Marlins vs Royals matchup page on Batters-Box.comOn the other end, Cole Ragans is on the bump today for Kansas City, with the highest pitcher rating on the day. He faces a roster with seven hitters above league average in strikeout rate and ground ball rate. Ragans is posting a 3.13 ERA along with a 1.10 WHIP this season. He has been a major factor in the Royals’ success this season.
If you are feeling a little squeamish about the Royals having to win by two by the end of the fifth inning. Take the -0.5 and pay for the juice. I like them both a lot. I just wanted plus money, and I believe the Royals will get after Munoz early and often. The man is posting an ERA of 5.76 and a WHIP of 1.35, giving up the fourth-highest hard contact percentage on the day.
Royals by 2!
Sprinkle of the Day: David Fry Home Run (+650)
The Stank:
The Day After Theory
You might be asking yourself, “well, what is that?”
Simple, if you like a certain player to go yard one day and he does not leave the yard, bet him the next day without even thinking about it. It has worked for me two times in the past seven days. Josh Naylor did not leave the yard on not only his birthday, but it was also hit bobble head night. Went yard the following game. Daniel Scheeman, I loved him on Thursday went o-3, did not play Friday night, Saturday goes yard.
It makes no sense, but neither does sports. Trust your plums.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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