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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs | September 23, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Monday!
Must-Bet Monday Props: Yesterday, we were just a run away from sweeping our picks! Today, while there are only a couple of games on the slate, there are still some great opportunities to cash in from the diamond.
Let’s dive into the action!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1.
Diamondbacks F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-120)
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Arizona Diamondbacks stud, Ketel Marte, runs the bases following a home run against the Milwaukee Brewers
The Stank:
Desperate for a playoff berth and eager to maintain their second spot in the NL Wild Card, the Arizona Diamondbacks face the San Francisco Giants on Monday night. With the Atlanta Braves just two games behind, the Diamondbacks need to stay ahead of them and the New York Mets, whom they are currently tied with in the standings.
They’ll be up against struggling right-hander Hayden Birdsong, who is coming off a tough outing against the Orioles, where he gave up three runs on four hits over 5.2 innings. Birdsong currently has the lowest rating on Batters-Box.com’s pitcher rankings and allows the most hard contact among the eight starters today. With a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, he hasn’t consistently limited runs, which could be problematic against Arizona’s potent offense.
The Diamondbacks boast the league’s top scoring offense in the first five innings, averaging 3.11 runs per game overall and 3.35 at home this season. Their lineup features four elite-rated hitters, no weak links, and five players exceeding the league strikeout rate. After a 10-9 loss to the Brewers yesterday, I expect them to come out swinging against such a vulnerable pitcher.
Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 Bases (+106)
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The Stank:
The ideal time to back Heliot Ramos is when he faces a left-handed pitcher. This season, Ramos is batting .369 against lefties, with an OPS of 1.179 and 19 extra-base hits. Today, he’s up against Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 5.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Right-handed hitters are batting .281 with an OPS of .803 against him this season. September hasn’t been kind to Rodriguez; he’s allowed 24 hits and 12 runs in four starts, posting a 5.12 ERA. This sets up a great opportunity for Ramos to get on base tonight.
Heliot Ramos ties it up in the 9th with a splash hit!
It’s the first splash hit EVER by a right-handed hitter 🤯 pic.twitter.com/T87Hw9Jsy4
— MLB (@MLB) September 15, 2024
Ramos has gone two consecutive games without a hit, going 0-for-9 since his 3-for-4 outing against the Royals on Friday. However, he currently holds the second-highest hitter rating on Batters-Box.com’s season rankings. When he has an elite rating, Ramos goes over 1.5 total bases in 55.56% of games and hits a home run 37.04% of the time. Those trends are too enticing to ignore, so I’ll be placing a bet on his home run prop.
Given the matchup and the odds, I can’t pass up the chance to back Ramos against a left-handed pitcher at plus money. I’m all in on Ramos tonight!
Sprinkle of the Day
- Heliot Ramos Home Run (+460)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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