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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs | September 13, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Friday!
Must-bet Friday props are here! After last night’s big win with Jackson Chourio’s late homer against the Giants, we’re ready to keep the streak going. Let’s replicate yesterday’s success with some hot plays from the diamond!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up 2-1. Jackson Chourio Cashed his bases and home run prop (+750)
Twins F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
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Twins outfielder Matt Wallner fired up
The Stank:
It wouldn’t be a must-bet props piece without mentioning a first five team total. Today’s focus is the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are hosting the Reds tonight, facing starting pitcher Julian Aguiar, who is rated as the worst pitcher on Batters-Box.com. Aguiar has the lowest ground ball percentage and the second-lowest strikeout rate against hitters in this matchup. In his five starts this season he is posting a 5.06 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.
Minnesota boasts the highest average hitter matchup wOBA and ISO on the slate. Additionally, they have four elite-rated hitters, no poor ones, and only two hitters above the league average in strikeout rate for this matchup. While the Twins are middle of the pack in first five scoring, averaging around 2.58 runs per game, they improve to 2.79 runs per game at home.
We’re hoping the Minnesota bats come alive tonight, capitalize on Aguiar’s struggles, and exceed 2.5 runs in the first five innings. Let’s start the weekend on a high note!
Matt Wallner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-109)
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The Stank:
Word on the street is I am the Matt Wallner Whisperer. Well, let’s test that theory out today.
@C_Marchio2 @YourBettingNews @JustSukh @cookitup31 @Shaggy_Bets @CrutchBets Colby’s a magician. pic.twitter.com/TNyFcSD1vB
— RustyOldMan (@Sportsfancbg) September 11, 2024
The Twins’ outfielder enters today as the highest-rated hitter on both of Batters-Box.com’s hitter ratings. With an elite rating this season, Wallner records a hit in 83.33% of his games and goes over 1.5 bases in 60% of his games. These trends are certainly enticing.
Today, he faces Reds starter Julian Aguiar, who has the worst pitcher rating on the slate. The 23-year-old right-hander has four pitches, all rated below average. His primary pitch, the sinker, which he throws 52% of the time, is graded at -1.3 league value. Wallner has an OPS of .773 and a wRC+ of 125 against sinkers this season.
Although Wallner has hit home runs in back-to-back games, which raises the possibility of some regression, this could also signal the start of a significant streak. Given his top ranking and current form, I’m confident in backing Wallner and his home run prop tonight.
Sprinkle of the day:
- Matt Wallner HR (+305)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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