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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs | September 12, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Friday Junior!
The must-bet props are back! Yesterday’s write-up went 1-0 because Kyle Tucker didn’t start. Although he did come in as a pinch hitter and recorded an RBI single, most books would void that play, so hopefully your bases and home run props did not count.
Today, I’m focused on one game with a ton of props I’m excited about. Let’s dive into them!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Yesterday’s write up 1-0. Kyle Tucker did not start last night.
Brewers F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-145)
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Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames (27) reacts after hitting a one run single against the St. Louis Cardinals
The Stank:
Hayden Birdsong is finally making his start in this series, and I’m excited about the matchup for Milwaukee. I wrote about how this could be an excellent opportunity for the Brewers a few days ago, but I wasn’t sure if Birdsong would start. He didn’t play then, but today’s the day! I’m really enthusiastic about the prop and the price.
The Brewers boast five elite-rated hitters according to default and current season ratings on Batters-Box.com. They rank third in baseball for first-five-innings scoring, averaging 2.88 runs, and 2.85 runs on the road.
Birdsong has been a favorable matchup for opposing hitters, allowing the highest hard contact percentage among today’s starters at 48.35%. He has a 5.19 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this season. The 23-year-old particularly struggles against right-handed hitters, who are batting .253 with an OPS of .902 against him. With Milwaukee’s lineup being predominantly right-handed, this could be a prime opportunity for the Brewers to score early and often.
With Birdsong finally getting his start, I’m fully backing the Brewers today. Hopefully, their bats will get hot and stay hot.
Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114)
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The Stank:
I’m a big fan of highly rated hitters on Batters-Box.com, and today’s top-rated hitter is the Brewers’ young standout, Jackson Chourio. Rece Hinds isn’t the highest-rated hitter today because he doesn’t start every day and has only received three elite ratings this season, making his trends less relevant.
After going 0-for-2 last night, I’m eager to back a player coming off a hitless game, especially when he faces the lowest-rated pitcher on the slate, Hayden Birdsong. Birdsong, the Giants’ starter, allows the highest hard contact percentage of the day at 48.43%. The 23-year-old right-hander has several pitches performing below league average. His most frequently used pitch, the fastball, is thrown nearly 50% of the time and has a negative four value.
Chourio is batting .257 with an OPS of .794 and a wRC+ of 128 against fastballs, this season. His numbers against Birdsong’s pitches are quite consistent: a batting average no lower than .263, an OPS no lower than .733, and a wRC+ no lower than 107. Given this matchup, today looks like an excellent opportunity to back Chourio.
Although September hasn’t started strong for Chourio, he’s coming off an incredible August, and the month is still young. I expect today to be a big day for Chourio and an even bigger day for the Brewers overall.
Sprinkle of the day:
- Jackson Chourio HR (+750)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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