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MLB Must Bet Props: Sides, Parlays & More | May 11, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The weekend is here! Happy Saturday to all. The MLB slate is filled with below-average pitchers that we need to take advantage of; here are a few bets that should suffice your appetite.
If not, I should have plenty on my card posted on my socials later today. Make sure to follow me on Twitter/X @C_Marchio2 for my complete Saturday card.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Full card went 4-3 (+2.25 Units) last night. Today is a new day. Let’s get after it.
Baltimore Orioles First Five Innings Runline (-0.5) (-118) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
Adley Rutschman celebrating with teammate after scoring
The Stank:
Over in Camden Yards, the Orioles host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second game of their three-game series this weekend. On the bump today for Arizona is three-year starter Ryne Nelson, who has been atrocious to start the year. Posting a 5.23 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP, it is looking like the Orioles should have some fun taking care of the Diamondbacks starter out of the gate.
Today, Nelson is up against a formidable lineup of six elite hitters, according to Batters-Box.com’s current and default ratings. On top of that, the average hitter rating today for the Orioles is 0.438 (Great Rating).
This is an Orioles offense that has been on a tear all season long. Baltimore is currently second in runs per game with 5.16, only a couple decimal places behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The top of their lineup is filled with guys batting over .260.
On the other side, the Diamondbacks are up against Orioles Starter John Means, a pitcher who only means harm to his opponents. While he has only had one start this season, his performance was stellar, allowing just three hits and no runs in seven innings pitched against the Reds last week. Moreover, in 30+ innings pitched, Means does not give up a lot of hard contact. The best matchup rating today for Arizona is Blaze Alexander (Great Name), who has an above-average matchup rating. However, with only two above-average hitters, the rest of Arizona’s offense may struggle against Means.
Get hot early. Step on the snakes. Let’s go, birds.
Moonshot: Colton Cowser Home Run (+870) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
Coming into this game, having the fifth-best current season rating and sixth-best rating in this game on the default rating according to Batters-box.com. The Orioles’ stud rookie, Colton Cowser, to leave the yard at a hit price is too lovely to pass up.
I have to, it’s Saturday. 🤷🏻♂️ pic.twitter.com/507hH4Y23e
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) May 11, 2024
The 24-year-old leftie has not gone yard since April 22. I believe it is time to pull out everyone’s favorite saying in sports: “He’s Due.” I love this spot for him to go yard. Cowser crushes 86% of Ryne Nelson’s pitches. He is batting a crisp .268 with a .889 OPS. It will be sunny, and 70 degrees at Camden Yards come the first pitch.
Full transparency, I am primarily placing this bet because of the number. Cowser, one of the best rookies in the league, is having a great start to his career, making a lot of hard contact when he hits the ball. At almost 10/1 I have to place this bet.
Hit Parlay: Juan Soto + Colton Cowser (+122) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
The reasons for liking everything about Colton Cowser are above. However, to recap, an excellent matchup rating while crushing all of Ryne Nelson’s pitches.
We are turning our attention to Juan Soto, who went 0-6 with two walks and a strikeout in his last two games. However, he faces Rays starter Zack Littell today, whose pitches, besides a decent slider, are primarily below league average. Littell also allows 6.5 hits per start this season, setting the stage for Soto’s potential success.
We all agree that we love Juan Soto in pinstripes right ?pic.twitter.com/EBm0D65TM9
— Ciarra ✨ (@ciarranotmist) May 5, 2024
Soto has the 12th-best matchup rating today on Batters-box.com and the second-best rating in this game, only behind Aaron Judge. The Yankees star has been on fire all year, and after two games without a hit, I think this is a great spot for him. On top of that, he crushes every single pitch in Littell’s repertoire.
The value of both Cowser and Soto today is incredible, and taking two guys that make a lot of hard contact while having great numbers vs their opponent’s pitches, this should be a fun one.
Happy Saturday.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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