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MLB Must Bet Props: Sides, Bases & Home Runs | September 15, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Happy Sunday!
More must bet props!
Sure, there is NFL football on all day today, but there is a ton of baseball on as well. If you are here to ride out the MLB season until the bitter end. Sit back, buckle up and let’s feast! I found us a couple of plays to enjoy and here they are.
BUT GUESS WHO WILL!!!! pic.twitter.com/1pD10kqin1
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 15, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up 1-1. I lost two of my three first five team totals, but made all the money back and some betting the live first seven. It is always a run higher than their current score. The odds are always worth it.
Nationals (-0.5) F5 Spread (-125)
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rookie sensation, James Wood rounding third
The Stank:
Some might view this game as one of the less exciting matchups on the Sunday slate, but I see it as a huge opportunity for a young, emerging team to exploit one of the weakest starting rotations in baseball.
The Miami Marlins allow the second most runs in the first five innings across the league, just behind the Colorado Rockies, with 3.09 runs per game. Today, they’re sending Adam Oller to the mound, who has the worst pitcher rating of the day according to Batters-Box.com. The 29-year-old right-hander sports a 5.40 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP this season. In his last two starts, he’s given up 12 hits and 10 runs over 10.1 innings. Teams have been hitting him hard, and the Nationals should be able to capitalize this afternoon.
↑ + ↓ pic.twitter.com/BJFpPLxEqc
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 14, 2024
Washington features four elite-rated hitters and has the second-highest average hitter matchup rating of the day. With only two hitters striking out more than the league average and two above the league ground ball rate, Oller is in for a tough game.
Despite being 14 games under .500, Washington is fairly average in first five scoring, averaging 2.35 runs per game overall and nearly 2.5 at home. If they can jump on Oller early and often, the Marlins’ offense should not be a concern.
On the flip side, Miami ranks 27th in first five scoring, averaging just 2.03 runs per game on the road. They’re up against Nationals pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has the third-best pitcher rating of the day in default ratings and the top rating in current season ratings. Gore is facing no elite-rated hitters, four poorly rated hitters, and seven batters with higher strikeout rates.
Gore is coming off a rough start against Atlanta, where he allowed six hits and seven runs in 3.2 innings. Today presents a prime opportunity for him to bounce back against one of the league’s worst offenses.
Side Note: I do not hate the Nationals first five team total over 2.5, but I hate the price. So lean First five Spread.
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
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The Stank:
It’s a big day for mispriced props, and today the books are giving us a chance to capitalize. We’re seeing one of the league’s best hitters with a bases prop of over 1.5 at plus money and a home run prop higher than +300.
Heading into Sunday, the Dodgers’ designated hitter boasts a top-five elite rating on both default and current season stats on Batters-Box.com. With this elite rating, he goes over his 1.5 bases prop almost 60% of the time and hits a home run 33.58% of the time. This is based on a sample size of 137 games. Despite having nearly a full MLB season’s worth of elite ratings, the books are still challenging us with these trends and matchup ratings.
On top of that, Ohtani has been hitless in his last two games. His most recent hit was on Wednesday against the Cubs; since then, he’s gone 0-6 with a walk and three strikeouts. But here’s the thing: Ohtani thrives in Sunday Night Baseball. In 128 Sunday games, he’s hitting .284 with an OPS of .974, including 38 home runs and 58 extra-base hits. While weekday stats are just numbers, we know Ohtani delivers on Sundays.
I’m all in on the prices for his bases and home run props. The matchup rating is also promising, as he’s facing Charlie Morton, who is coming off back-to-back 100-pitch games against the Reds and Rockies, where he allowed a combined 11 hits and three runs. Morton is due for a rough outing, and today could be the day.
Sprinkle of the day:
- Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+350)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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