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MLB Must Bet Props: Parlays, Home Runs & Totals | May 20, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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No Monday blues today. I will not allow it. We are going to have a great week and it starts today. Here are a couple of props to sink your teeth into. The sampler pack: hit parlay, long ball and first five innings total.
Let’s have a week.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Two-Leg Hit Parlay:
William Contreras & Aaron Judge 1+ Hit (+101) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
New York Yankees Captain, Aaron Judge tosses bat down after being walked
The Stank:
It is time to go back to the basics. To start this marvelous Monday, we are taking a two-leg hit parlay that features two top-ten matchup ratings from Batters-Box.com. Today, my favorite hitters are Aaron Judge and William Contreras.
Judge has been on a remarkable upswing, leaving his slow start to the season behind. In his last ten games, he’s maintained an impressive .394 batting average, with 13 hits, 5 home runs, 8 RBIs, and 10 runs. Today, he takes on Seattle starter Logan Gilbert, who Judge has solid numbers against his repertoire.
AARON JUDGE BOMB! pic.twitter.com/DbD8flYR5b
— Talkin’ Yanks (@TalkinYanks) May 19, 2024
As for the other leg, Contreras has been impressive all season long for Milwaukee, batting .341 with 7 home runs, 37 RBI, and an OPS of .955. After going 0-5 against the Astros yesterday, he looks to bounce back against one of the many struggling Marlins pitchers. The starter today for Miami is Ryan Weathers, who is posting a 3.81 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP this season. Like Judge, Contreras also crushes all of Weathers’ pitches. In 24 Elite Ratings, Contreras has recorded a hit in 75.0% of games, according to Batters-Box.com.
The value of these two guys just recording a hit is incredible. Contreras’s prop is usually set at 1.5 instead of a half.
Brewers vs Marlins First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+100) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Set in the vibrant 305, the Marlins are gearing up to host the Brewers. Both teams have been on a roll, delivering solid performances. The Marlins are riding high after a series win over the Mets, while the Brewers have clinched victory in two of their last three series. The stage is set for an exhilarating showdown.
Scoring early has not been an issue for these two clubhouses. Miami has been scoring more runs at home, averaging 2.46 per first five innings. This more than compensates for Milwaukee’s slight dip on the road scoring. Despite this, the Brewers remain formidable, ranking as the fourth-best team in first-five-inning scoring with an impressive 3.02.
MY OH MYERS. pic.twitter.com/ZAd4iEC6Pj
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) May 19, 2024
Today, both starters have the second and third-worst pitcher ratings, according to Batters-Box.com. Ryan Weathers gets the start for Miami. Today, he faces two elite and zero-poor hitters. He then has to face two hitters above the league strikeout rate. The average Brewer hitter today has an above-average rating.
On the other hand, Joe Ross is on the bump for Milwaukee. Today, he has to face off against one elite and zero poor hitters. Only three Marlins are above the league strikeout rate. Their average hitter rating is a few decimal places away from an excellent rating.
Ryan Weathers and Joe Ross give up a ton of hard contact, and the opposition should take advantage of them. Neither pitcher has a remarkable pitch, and most of their pitches hover around the league average. Hopefully, these two offenses can get after these amateurs early and often.
Home Run: Otto Lopez (+1600) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
“I can’t quit you.” – Brokeback Mountain.
Can we go back to back Monday’s cashing on Otto Lopez’s home run? Maybe. Anything is possible.
Today, Otto Lopez is the 4th highest-rated hitter on Batters-box.com. This will be his sixth elite rating this season. When elite, he hits .250 with a double and a home run. He has gone over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI prop in three games and over 1.5 total bases in two games. While not directly related to home runs, these stats demonstrate his versatility and potential for success. So, if you’re looking for a bet with lesser odds, Mr. Lopez still has value. He’s a player worth considering.
The Marlins second baseman has two home runs in his last ten games, batting .313 with a .924 OPS. If it stays over 10/1, I will continue to ride this play out. Just sprinkle some Little Debbie money on it and forget about it.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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