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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Hits & Home Runs | September 2, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Monday!
The must-bet props are back! With some people off work, I have got you covered. If you’re working and need a break, here are four plays to help your day fly by. Let’s take advantage of these elite hitters and underperforming pitchers!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
August MLB recap: 95-119 (+31.88 Units).
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1. The Mets hooked us on that Over 1.5 F5 team total.
Red Sox F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
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Red Sox stud, Rafael Devers admiring long ball
The Stank:
After a 100-pitch, 4.2-inning performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he allowed eight hits and four runs, New York Mets starter Luis Severino is set to face the Boston Red Sox. Today, the Red Sox lineup features four elite-rated hitters, no poorly rated hitters, and three who strike out more than the league average. According to Batters-Box.com, they have the highest average hitter matchup rating.
This season, the Red Sox have consistently ranked in the top ten for first-five innings scoring, averaging 2.77 runs. Even on the road, they maintain a solid average of 2.65 runs. With their playoff hopes on the line and coming off two games where they scored just one run each, they are likely due for a breakout performance.
Severino has been solid for the Mets all season, but hitters seem to be catching up to him. He has the third-worst pitcher rating for the day, with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He has allowed over these averages in 16 of his 26 starts this season. Given the Red Sox’s current urgency, I expect their bats to come alive early and surpass two runs.
Sprinkle: Rafael Devers Home Run (+375)
Matt Wallner 1+ Hit (-155)
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The Stank:
Finding daily value in baseball prop bets is crucial, and today is a prime example. Identifying a hit prop with odds under -200 that offers solid value without paying excessive juice is key. Personally, I prefer to bet on hitters with odds of -160 or lower straight. For odds above -170, I recommend combining them into a two-leg hit parlay to achieve plus money.
Matt Wallner has the third-best matchup rating on Batters-Box.com for today’s slate. Wallner has consistently been one of my top targets, as his hit prop is frequently set around this favorable number. This season, he has recorded a hit in 85.71% of games with an elite rating (based on a 21-game sample). Additionally, he hits a home run 28.57% of the time when given an elite rating.
💣 HOME RUN ALERT 💣
MATT WALLNER HIT (-135) ✅
MATT WALLNER HOME RUN (+390) ✅TRUSTING YOUR PLUMS ✅ pic.twitter.com/WVDzExkojx
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 25, 2024
Wallner has been hitless since Friday against the Blue Jays, going 0-for-8 with four strikeouts since then. Despite this, he has been consistent overall this season, batting .260 with an OPS of .948.
Today, he faces Rays starter Zack Littell, who has a four-pitch repertoire. Three of these pitches are below average, while his slider, thrown 41% of the time, is his most effective pitch. Wallner has decent numbers against sliders, so he should be able to handle Littell’s offerings.
Considering the price and Wallner’s statistics, I believe today is a great opportunity to back him to record a hit at -155.
Sprinkle: Matt Wallner Home Run (+350)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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