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MLB Must Bet Props: Guardians vs. Yankees Game 2 | October 15, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Guardians vs. Yankees in the Bronx, Game 2 of the ALCS, and we’re running it back with a first-five bet, only this time playing it a bit safer. The Yankees just need to be ahead by one after the fifth inning, and given how their bats have been heating up, the setup looks promising. With Gerrit Cole on the mound and the Yankees’ offense outmatching Guardians starter Tanner Bibee, this is a great spot to back New York.
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-Guardians vs Yankees Game 2 Bets
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Monday’s write up went 0-2.
Yankees (-0.5) First Five Spread (-120)
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Yankees ace Gerrit Cole fired up in Game 4 of the ALDS
The first fives have been tough, but we’re running it back—just playing it safer this time. No need to stress over how many runs the Yankees score tonight; they just need to be up by one after five innings.
Tonight, the Yankees’ offense boasts three elite-rated hitters, one great hitter, and the top five highest-rated hitters in this matchup. They will face Guardians starter Tanner Bibee, who struggles with a poorly rated average hitter matchup ISO and ground-ball rate. He also allows a slightly elevated hard contact percentage. Meanwhile, none of the Yankees hitters are above the league average ground-ball rate, and they generate plenty of hard contact. Bibee has five pitches in his arsenal, but three of them rate below league value. His best pitch is his slider, which he throws 28% of the time. It’s rated at 13.8, but with 72% of his pitches hovering just above or below league average, it’s not a major concern.
On the other side, the Guardians are up against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who’s coming off a dominant performance in Game 4 of the ALDS, allowing just one run on six hits in seven innings. The Guardians only have above-average-rated hitters, according to Batters-Box.com, and as a team, they’re batting .236 with a .759 OPS in 127 combined at-bats against Cole.
Considering the value and how well the Yankees’ bats have been performing lately, this feels like a great spot to back them in the Bronx.
Sprinkle of the Day: Aaron Judge Home Run +285 (0.5 Units)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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