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MLB Must Bet Props: Guardians vs. Yankees Game 1 | October 14, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Cleveland Guardians Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-147
7
+105o
+150
New York Yankees Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+130
7
-116u
-164
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameHappy Monday!
Sunday was a complete disaster. I’d love to say we are due for a bounce back, but with the season winding down, it’s time to play it safe and stick to what’s worked all year. When you have a process that delivers, trust it.
Now, let’s dive into this Guardians vs. Yankees matchup.
It’s time to fade everything I take pic.twitter.com/uC4pmB95dA
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) October 14, 2024
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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Sunday’s write up went 0-2.
Guardians First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)
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David Fry fired up in the ALDS vs Detroit
In the Bronx, we’re rolling with the Cleveland Guardians to go over 1.5 runs in the first five innings.
Carlos Rodon takes the mound for the Yankees in Game 1, fresh off a rough start in the ALDS where he surrendered four runs on seven hits in just 3.2 innings. The 31-year-old southpaw has been one of the Yankees’ most inconsistent starters, coming into today with the lowest pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. His hard contact rate is a concerning 37.6%, and he has a poor ground ball rate, which means Cleveland’s hitters should be lining up to hit rockets. Rodon has allowed over two runs in 22 of his 33 starts this season, playoffs included.
ALCS Game 1
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees
7:38 PM ETAlex Cobb vs Carlos Rodon#MLBPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/6ogw5kOU3J
— Goody Sports (@Goody__Sports) October 14, 2024
Cleveland’s offense, after a challenging series against Detroit, regained its rhythm late in the games. They now have four elite-rated hitters and have averaged 2.33 runs in the first five innings over their last three games, as well as 2.35 runs on the road this season. Meanwhile, New York has allowed opponents to score an average of 2.36 runs in the first five innings at home this season.
The data points to another shaky outing for Rodon, making this spot too good to pass up. Give me the Guardians over 1.5 runs in the first five innings.
Sprinkle of the Day: David Fry Home Run +600 (0.4 Units)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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