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MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Innings | October 3, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameHappy Thursday!
The MLB Must Bet Props are back!
Yesterday was tough, dropping two units, but we’re ready to bounce back. With only one game today, we’re keeping it light and healthy. For Game 3 of the NL Wild Card round, we’ll stick to what’s worked all season—a solid first five prop, plus a little extra for fun.
Let’s dive in!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1
2024 MLB Season: +14.92 Units
Brewers F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-130)
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Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio (11) celebrates after hitting a home run
We’re heading back to Milwaukee and once again taking the Brewers’ team total over in the first five innings. Sure, it’s the playoffs, and every at-bat, pitch, and out carries extra weight. But needing just two runs against a poorly rated pitcher they’ve faced twice this season? The Brewers have averaged over two runs in the first five innings all year (2.84 runs a game in first five), plus they will have their passionate home crowd behind them. They should get it done.
3 games for you, Mets and Brewers.
You go, Mets and Brewers. pic.twitter.com/XGYTxMABFO
— Cut4 (@Cut4) October 3, 2024
Tonight, the Brewers face Mets starter Jose Quintana in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card. The winner moves on to play the Phillies in the NLDS. According to Batters-Box.com, Quintana has allowed a lot of hard contact this season. In 31 starts, the 35-year-old lefty has a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. His home and road splits are similar, but his day versus night performance tells a different story: a 3.20 ERA during the day compared to a 4.22 at night.
The 13-year veteran has faced the Brewers twice this season, allowing two runs in both outings. In 66 at-bats against Quintana, Milwaukee is hitting .303 with a .403 OBP and a .903 OPS. While that’s not a huge sample size, it’s promising that they’ve found success against him.
If the Brewers are hungry enough to advance tonight, they’ll come out firing and hit this prop early for us. I’m all in on the Brewers F5 team total over 1.5!
Sprinkle of the day
- William Contreras Home Run (+520)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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