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MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly F5 Team Totals | June 29, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Saturday to all of my sick, degenerate filth animals!
There are so many games from so many sports today, but here are a couple of team totals from the league’s best-scoring teams in the first five innings that I found to have some incredible value. Let’s get into it!
Most importantly, don’t be rude, it’s Saturday!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Since Monday, I am 19-12-1 (+22.64u)
It has been a tough journey to have a week like this. Today we keep that energy rolling.
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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Phillies Star, Kyle Schwarber bat flipping after hitting a home run
The Stank:
Let’s take advantage of some pitchers with the worst matchup ratings today.
Today, Marlins starter Roddery Munoz, who has the worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com, faces a daunting task. He has to contend with four elite-rated hitters from the Phillies, who also have an average hitter with an elite rating. This is particularly challenging given that Philadelphia is the best-scoring team in the first five innings, averaging 3.09 runs per game and 3.25 at home.
Munoz is posting a disgusting 5.80 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.40. He has allowed 15 runs in his last four outings. Allowing teams to go over 2.5 runs in four of his seven starts this season. This season, the Marlins are allowing the third most runs to opponents in the first five innings with 3.06 runs per game.
The Phillies offense should have themselves a Saturday getting on top of every Munoz pitch they see. Over 2.5 (-120) GIVE ME IT!
Team Total: Diamondbacks F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100)
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The Stank:
Coming into today’s matchup, Oakland Athletics starter Hogan Harris has the second-worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com. He will be going up against three elite hitters and the third-best overall graded team, which received a great rating. Harris is posting a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season —solid numbers for a pitcher who gives up so much hard contact. He has allowed teams to go over 2.5 runs in four of his seven starts this season.
Out of all the teams Harris has faced this season, the Diamondbacks are far and away the best early-scoring team he will face. At home this season, Arizona is averaging 3.29 runs per game. On the season, they are the fourth best scoring team in the first five innings, averaging a hair below 3.0 with 2.99 per game.
Back out in front. 😤 pic.twitter.com/xPBCWziFHi
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) June 29, 2024
With Randal Grichuk, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker all boasting elite ratings in the default ratings on Batters-Box.com, the Diamondbacks’ lineup is a force to be reckoned with. After a slow start last night, they should get rolling early today and surpass the three-run mark with ease.
Full Transparency: I also put a unit on the F5 total over 4.5 (+100) between the A’s and Diamondbacks, so take that information however you wish. Why? The Athletics have a decent enough matchup today to at least contribute to a few runs, but I think the safer play is the Diamondbacks team total in the first five innings. Plus, Oakland allows the most runs in the first five innings in baseball (3.10 per game).
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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