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MLB Must Bet Props: Dodgers vs Mets Game 3 | October 16, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-205
8
-103o
+100
New York Mets Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-210
8
+100u
-110
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As Game 3 of the NLCS unfolds, the Mets return home after a thrilling Game 2 victory in Los Angeles, ready to seize the moment. With Walker Buehler’s inconsistency on the mound and the Mets averaging 2.65 first-five runs this season, New York looks poised to keep the momentum rolling. The Dodgers’ road struggles only add to the intrigue—will the Mets capitalize early once again?
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Monday’s write up went 0-2.
Mets First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-160)
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Mark Vientos is ready to rock and roll at home in Game 3
I will either be spot on or way off again—no in-between this postseason. The Mets’ first-five team total over 1.5 missed in Game 1 but cashed easily in Game 2, and I like it again for Game 3 at home.
MARK VIENTOS GRAND SLAM
THE @METS ARE RAKING IN LA 🤯 pic.twitter.com/DIQYRNusVa
— MLB (@MLB) October 14, 2024
The Mets face another inconsistent Dodgers starter, Walker Buehler. The 30-year-old right-hander has allowed over 1.5 runs in 15 of his 17 starts this season, including the postseason, posting a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He’s coming off a rough NLDS start, giving up six runs on seven hits in five innings against the Padres.
Stealing Game 2 in L.A. was huge for the Mets, and they’ll look to carry that momentum back home. The offense has averaged 2.65 first-five runs all season, while the Dodgers have struggled on the road, allowing 2.88 runs to their opponents in the first five.
Other Options
The price might be a bit juicy, but if you prefer a safer play, you could take the Mets’ first-five moneyline (pushes if tied) or their first-five spread (-0.5) at plus money. Just be cautious—Luis Severino has allowed 3+ runs in five straight starts, so know what you’re getting into if you go for the better-priced prop.
Sprinkle of the Day: Pete Alonso Home Run (+410)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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