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MLB Must Bet Props: Champagne Theory | September 20, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Friday!
After an amazing 5-0 night betting on baseball, we’re keeping the weekend fun rolling! The weekend actually kicked off yesterday, so we’re treating ourselves to some champagne. But here’s the catch: we’re fading any baseball team that popped a bottle yesterday. Let’s dive into the Champagne Theory!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up went 2-0. The whole card swept 5-0.
🗣️ GET THE BROOMS OUT!!
5-0 (+5.9u) 🧹
Dbacks F5 ML ✅
Mariners (-0.5) F5 ✅
Mets F5 TT Over 2.5 ✅
Shohei Over 1.5 Bases ✅
Shohei Nuke Missile ✅✅✅ pic.twitter.com/7AgkY37PC3— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 20, 2024
Rockies (+1.5) F5 Spread (-138)
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Can the Rockies upset the red hot Dodgers?
The Stank:
After Shohei Ohtani’s incredible performance—going six for six with two home runs, 10 RBIs, two stolen bases, and a total of 17 bases—the Dodgers celebrated clinching a playoff spot by popping champagne. We’re embracing the Champagne Theory until the playoffs are set.
Champagne Theory: 2-0 (+2.0 Units)
Postseason ready. pic.twitter.com/18TBmxCqdU
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 20, 2024
After the celebration, the Dodgers will travel home to Los Angeles from Miami to face Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies tonight. While Freeland isn’t typically regarded as a top starting pitcher, he relies heavily on breaking balls, and pitching on the road provides a significant advantage due to the different air conditions compared to Coors Field. This could be an excellent opportunity for Freeland to challenge a potentially hungover Dodgers team.
The Rockies’ offense features six elite-rated hitters, with no poor ratings and five players striking out above the league average. They will be up against Justin Wrobleski, who has a 6.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP this season. The 24-year-old lefty has allowed three or more runs in four of his seven outings.
Despite the Rockies’ reputation for struggling offensively on the road, the combination of the Dodgers coming off a celebration and a travel day could create an opportunity for them to secure a quick first five win against one of the league’s most potent offenses.
Cardinals (-0.5) F5 Spread (+115)
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The Stank:
We’re fading the celebrations just like the Rockies. Yesterday, the Guardians celebrated clinching a playoff berth and now must travel to St. Louis to face the Cardinals.
The Guardians aren’t as potent on the road as they are at Progressive Field. Their new field dimensions favor left-handed hitters, and at home, Cleveland averages 2.79 runs in the first five innings, but that drops to 2.42 runs on the road.
Ben Lively will be on the mound for Cleveland, facing a Cardinals lineup that boasts one elite hitter and one very good one. While it’s not the best matchup for the Cardinals, they do have a higher average hitter rating compared to Cleveland.
Kyle Gibson gets the start for St. Louis after a tough outing in Toronto, where he allowed five runs on four hits over 5.1 innings. This is the perfect opportunity for Gibson to bounce back, especially against a team that was out celebrating in another state the night before. I love it. Go Cardinals!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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