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MLB Must Bet Props: Bases, Team Totals & Home Runs | July 19th, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Welcome back! Happy Friday!
I hope you had a fantastic break—I know I did. Now, let’s refocus and kick off the second half stronger than ever.
Here are a couple of electrifying plays to get us started!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
In the last seven days I am up (+7.2 Units) and in the past 30 days I am up (+56.4 Units).
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)
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Phillies Star, Kyle Schwarber admiring his nuke
The Stank:
Is there any other way for me to kick off the second half of the MLB season other than starting my card off with a first five inning team total? Of course not.
Today, the Phillies boast the highest average hitter matchup rating of the season on Batters-Box.com. They field seven elite hitters and zero poor-rated ones, facing Pirates starter Martin Perez, who ranks third worst among pitchers this season.
Perez is vulnerable to hard hits, which plays right into the hands of Philadelphia’s heavy hitters. The Phillies, the league’s top-scoring team in the first five innings, are poised to capitalize. Perez has already exceeded this total in eight of his 14 starts this year.
Philadelphia has historically performed well against Perez, batting an impressive .317 as a team with an .841 OPS.
Expect the Phillies to come out swinging and boost our winnings to kick off the second half of the season!
Total Bases: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+100)
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The Stank:
The odds on this prop for Shohei Ohtani are unbelievable—plus money for arguably the best hitter in the game? It’s insane not to take it.
Shohei Ohtani, enters today as the highest-rated hitter on both Batters-Box.com ratings. Though his sample size against Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta is small, Ohtani boasts an impressive .444 batting average with four hits, including a double and two home runs in just nine plate appearances.
In 102 elite matchups, Ohtani has surpassed this total base prop 58.82% of the time. This season alone, he’s exceeded 1.5 total bases in 52.5% of his 40 elite matchups.
Before the all-star break, Ohtani was hitting a crisp .289 with five extra base hits, surpassing this prop in half of those games.
Today, against a pitcher who relies heavily on fastballs (48%), Ohtani has been crushing them all season long. Ride the trend and bet on Ohtani to go Over 1.5 Total Bases.
Sprinkle of the Day: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+240)
- When elite this season he homers 25% of the time
- When elite over the last three seasons homers 31.37% of the time
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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