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MLB Must Bet Props: Bases & Home Runs | October 11, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
San Diego Padres Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-9.0
+105
11
+120o
0
Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+9.0
-135
11
-155u
0
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameHappy Friday!
Game 5 between the Padres and Dodgers is set up to be an elimination thriller, where the biggest names will have to rise to the occasion under the brightest lights. With everything on the line, the pressure is mounting, and it’s time for the stars to show up or go home. One player in particular stands out in tonight’s matchup…
Let’s dive into why this could be his moment to shine.
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Thursday’s write up went 0-1.
2024 MLB Season: +13.2 Units
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
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Can Shohei show the Padres who their true Padre is tonight?
Game 5—where the stars shine brightest. Today, we’re taking Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases. After going 3-1 with two walks in Game 4, the clear-cut NL MVP is primed for tonight’s matchup against Padres starter Yu Darvish.
Ohtani went hitless the last time he faced Darvish in this series, but this is the fifth time the Dodgers have seen the 38-year-old righty this season. Personally, that’s way too many looks at his stuff, especially twice in one series. Sure, Darvish went seven innings, allowing just one run on three hits in his last outing, but can he duplicate that in a must-win scenario for both sides? Time will tell.
Today, Ohtani is the highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box.com’s rankings. When he’s rated elite, he gets a hit 75% of the time, goes over 1.5 bases 60% of the time, and homers 33.56% of the time. He’s cashed his bases prop in seven of his last ten elite-rated games, and this should be another great spot for him.
Two of Darvish’s three main pitches—his fastball and sinker—are below league average. Against those two pitches this season, Ohtani is hitting .294 or better, with an OPS of .944 or better, and a wRC+ of 172 or better. Of course, with Ohtani, most pitch splits look mouthwatering.
Give me the star to shine in the biggest moment of the season—Ohtani over 1.5 bases.
Sprinkle of the Day: Shohei Home Run (+200)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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