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MLB Must Bet Prop: Tigers vs Guardians Game 5 | October 12, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Detroit Tigers Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+152
6
-105o
-123
Cleveland Guardians Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-170
6
-110u
+114
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameHappy Saturday!
It’s Game 5 between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. With both aces on the mound and neither giving up a run in this series, this one’s shaping up to be a tight, nerve-wracking battle. If you’re into elimination game unders, this matchup is setting up to be the ultimate sweat!
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Friday’s write up went 0-2.
2024 MLB Season: +11.2 Units
Tigers vs Guardians Under 6 (-115)
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Guardians star Jose Ramirez gearing up to save his team’s season.
Going with a time-tested system play: elimination game unders. This one’s going to be a sweat.
The Tigers vs. Guardians total is set at a brutal six, but with Tigers ace Tarik Skubal on the mound, you can feel better. He’s been lights out all postseason. On the other side, you’ve got former Tiger Michael Boyd pitching for Cleveland, and neither starter has given up a run in this series.
Boyd is coming off 4.2 innings with five strikeouts, two walks, and four hits allowed. Sporting a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season, he’s allowed under 2.5 runs in six of nine starts. In a must-win game, the Guardians need him at his best.
Skubal has been, well, Skubal. Three straight scoreless starts, 20 innings, nine hits, zero runs, 22 strikeouts—he’s doing Cy Young things.
I’ve mentioned my fear of starters facing a team twice in one series, but so far, I’ve been proven wrong. Surely no one will get to the AL Cy Young front-runner in a game like this! I will sticking to my guns and lean with the under in this matchup.
Winning Side
As for a side, I lean Guardians as a home dog for value, but with Skubal dealing, it’s tough. Take the value and run. It’s Game 5!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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