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MLB Must Bet Prop: First Five Team Total | September 28, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Saturday!
The Must Bet Props are back, but today’s offering is a small sampler: just one play. While things have been a bit off, we’re committed to riding out the season until the end. This particular prop caught my attention as soon as I started analyzing the slate, and I’ve been eagerly awaiting its release all morning.
Let’s get into the details—here’s my favorite prop of the day from the diamond.
More Saturday Action
Click here to see all my college football picks for Week 5!
CFB Saturday ✍🏼
Stan vs Clem —> https://t.co/vOIQ18Z9ws
WKU vs BC —> https://t.co/7fH3iXOcKx
COL vs UCF —> https://t.co/LqZZnb9NIH
WSU vs BOISE —> https://t.co/o2CUFDHbvE
UGA vs BAMA —> https://t.co/UAfzOytadw
ALWAYS FREE FREE FREE ON @YourBettingNews pic.twitter.com/j19EmKnRA7
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 28, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 0-2. Been an awful week, the scribbles are 0-6 in the last three days. FADE ME!!!!
Orioles F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-160)
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Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins dapping up after scoring
The Stank:
Today, we’re keeping it simple with the one prop that makes the most sense statistically: the Orioles’ first five team total over 2.5.
They’ll face Twins starter Zebby Matthews, who holds the lowest pitcher rating in both current and default metrics on Batters-Box.com. The young right-hander has a five-pitch arsenal, but every single one falls below league average. His fastball, which he throws nearly 45% of the time, carries a rough -1.9 value.
In eight starts this season, Matthews has posted a 5.71 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. While he’s coming off two solid outings, allowing just seven hits and two runs across 9.1 innings, teams have topped 2.5 runs in only three of his eight starts.
Land of 10,000 Rakes pic.twitter.com/XHQpswS92p
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) September 28, 2024
On the flip side, Baltimore’s offense is stacked, featuring eight elite-rated hitters. They boast the highest average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact percentage. Coming off a dominant 7-1 win over Minnesota last night, the Orioles’ bats should stay hot against the Twins’ weak pitching.
This season, Baltimore has been one of the best first-five scoring teams, averaging 2.79 runs. Meanwhile, the Twins rank 23rd in runs allowed over the first five innings, giving up 2.66 per game.
If the Orioles’ bats stay alive through the weekend, they should handle whatever Minnesota throws at them. I’m taking the over!
This prop isn’t available yet because the Orioles’ pitcher hasn’t been announced. Please be patient!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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