MLB Best Bets Today | April 6, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Sun Apr 06, 2025, 09:48 AM
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Saturday MLB Best Bets: Today’s MLB slate offers two strong spots to back some bats in favorable matchups. The Pirates draw a strong matchup against Will Warren, while Matt Wallner leads the Twins with elite ratings. Both plays bring value and upside to close out the weekend.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 23-37 (+1.62 Units)
Thursday’s Card: 5-5 (+2.73u)
Yankees vs Pirates Best Bet
Can the Pirates get on top of Will Warren this afternoon?
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Offer Details: Free Bets: 50% of the first deposit is awarded as a Free Bet, up to $250. For example, depositing $500 earns a $250 Free Bet. Free Spins: 100 Free Spins in the Casino, distributed as 10 spins per day over 10 days. Each day’s spins apply to a different game. How to Claim: 1) Enter promo code FREE250 when making the first deposit. 2) Deposit a minimum of $50.
The Pirates first five team total at 1.5 is worth paying all the juice. They enter Sunday’s slate with the highest average hitter matchup rating, per Batters-Box.com. On top of that, they have four elite-rated hitters, zero rated poor, eight hitters with strikeout rates above league average, and only two above the league ground ball rate. The strikeouts are a concern, but if that is my biggest issue, I can live with it.
Getting 1.5 on a team with the highest-rated lineup is a gift, regardless of the outcome. So far this season, Pittsburgh is averaging 1.78 runs in the first five innings. Over their last three games, that number is up to 2.33. A season ago, they averaged 2.24 per first five.
The Pirates will face Yankees starter Will Warren, who gives up the most hard contact among all starting pitchers on the day. Warren also holds the worst average hitter matchup wOBA and matchup ISO. He is coming off a solid start against Arizona on Tuesday, allowing two runs, striking out four, and walking four across five innings.
With the price on this prop and the entire Pirates lineup being graded as elite on Batters-Box.com, this is an auto-play for me. The juice is well worth the squeeze. Pittsburgh should be able to get after Warren early and often with how well they match up against him.
Best Bet: Pirates F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140) at BetOnline
Astros vs Twins Best Bet
Can Matt Wallner keep his hit streak alive?
Current Bonus Offer: BetOnline’s No Strings Welcome Offer gives new players up to $250 in Free Bets and 100 Free Spins with their first deposit.
Offer Details: Free Bets: 50% of the first deposit is awarded as a Free Bet, up to $250. For example, depositing $500 earns a $250 Free Bet. Free Spins: 100 Free Spins in the Casino, distributed as 10 spins per day over 10 days. Each day’s spins apply to a different game. How to Claim: 1) Enter promo code FREE250 when making the first deposit. 2) Deposit a minimum of $50.
We are going right back to one of my favorite hitters in the game—Minnesota Twins outfielder Matt Wallner. The leadoff man enters Sunday’s slate with an elite rating on Batters-Box.com. His bases prop on Saturday was nearly 2/1 and has dropped significantly due to an even better matchup. At nearly +150, this is a spot I have to be on regardless of the outcome. Wallner will have the most opportunities to clear 1.5 bases, and he is seeing the ball extremely well. Despite a .160 average, he has only struck out seven times in 25 at-bats. The 27-year-old has recorded a hit in back-to-back games and has a knock in three of four games so far this month.
Today, he faces Houston starter Ronel Blanco, who is coming off a tough outing against the Giants on Monday, where he allowed three runs over five innings. Blanco has consistently struggled with his fastball, which grades well below league average. The same goes for his changeup. His best offering is his slider, which is the only pitch in his arsenal that ranks above league average. Wallner, however, owns an OPS above .800 and a wRC+ north of 147 against all three of those pitches.
With where he is hitting in the lineup, how well he is seeing the ball, and the odds being offered, taking Wallner over 1.5 bases is a clear go. You can also pair his 1+ hit with another player for plus money, or pay the juice on his -150 hit prop.
Best Bet: Matt Wallner OVer 1.5 Total Bases (+145) at BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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