Mets vs. Marlins (July 30): Carrasco, Mets look to wrap up series win in Miami

After a win in Friday’s series opener against the Miami Marlins, Carlos Carrasco and the New York Mets will look to secure the series win in Saturday evening’s showdown in Miami.

In the opener, Brandon Nimmo hit a tiebreaking two-run homer in the eighth inning to lead New York to a 6-4 win over Miami. The Mets fell behind 3-0 in the first inning, but in the end, they picked up their fourth straight win to remain three games ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.

In the second game of the series, Carrasco will be seeking his 11th win of the season, while Miami’s Trevor Rogers will be looking to avoid his 11th loss of the season.

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: New York Mets (62-37, 31-20 away, 1st in the NL East) vs. Miami Marlins (47-53, 22-24 home, 4th in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: LoanDepot Park (Miami, Florida)
• Date: Saturday, July 30, 2022
• Game Time: 6:10 p.m. Eastern Time

Mets vs. Marlins Pitching Matchup

• New York Mets: Carlos Carrasco (2022: 19 starts, 10-4, 4.07 ERA)
• Miami Marlins: Trevor Rogers (2022: 19 starts, 4-10, 5.85 ERA)

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Game odds, when available, will be from one of the legal online sports betting sites that we have reviewed and recommend.

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Run Line

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Can Carrasco Close Magnificent Month with 100th Career Win?

After facing his share of tough times both on the field and off of it, Carrasco could pick up his 100th win in Miami.

It has been quite a season for “Cookie”, who has already picked up the same number of wins in 2022 as he did in 47 starts from 2019 to 2021. Last season, his first campaign with the Mets, he was 1-5 with a 6.04 ERA in a dozen starts.

If not for a tough end to his June, Carrasco could already have his 100th win in the bag. In his final four starts last month, he was 1-3 with a 9.68 ERA.

However, he has bounced back in a big way this month, going 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA in his four starts.

• Last four starts in June: 1-3, 9.68 ERA, 17.2 IP, 27 H, 19 R (19 ER), 8 BB, 20 K
• Four starts in July: 2-0, 1.21 ERA, 22.1 IP, 24 H, 3 R (3 ER), 7 BB, 20 K

He has allowed his share of baserunners, but he hasn’t been so generous with letting them take a full trip around the bases. And in his last two starts, he hasn’t allowed a single run.

Half of Carrasco’s wins this season have come division foes, including one in his two starts against the Marlins. Overall, he is 5-0 with a 2.72 ERA in seven starts against NL East teams this season.

Rogers Looking to Rediscover 2021 Success

While Carrasco is enjoying what stands to be one of the best seasons of his MLB career, Rogers is suffering through a rough season.

Rotation mate Sandy Alcantara is the NL Cy Young Award favorite, Pablo Lopez is having the best season of his MLB career, and Braxton Garrett has chipped in with a number of solid starts.

But Rogers, who finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, has yet to win more than once in a month and will have a fourth straight month with an ERA over 5.00 unless he pitches a gem against the Mets.

• April (four starts): 1-3, 5.09 ERA
• May (five starts): 1-2, 5.32 ERA
• June (five starts): 1-1, 7.06 ERA
• July (five starts): 1-4, 5.84 ERA

Last season, Rogers had a 2.77 ERA in 11 home starts. This season, he has a 7.08 ERA in nine home starts.

He enters this start having lost his last four starts, and he has allowed 16 runs (15 earned), 25 hits, and seven walks in 19.2 innings.

To add insult to injury, he isn’t getting much run support either. In those four starts, the Marlins have scored five runs and been outscored 25-5.

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Picks

Mets vs. Marlins Prediction: Mets to win

Mets vs. Marlins Picks: Mets -1.5

Rogers is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts against the Washington Nationals this season, but against everyone else, he is 1-10 with a 6.72 ERA in 16 starts.

Against the other three NL East teams, he is 0-5 with a 7.12 ERA in eight starts, with 31 runs (29 earned), 44 hits, and 18 walks allowed in 36.2 innings.

Of Rogers’ 19 starts, the Marlins has lost 14, including seven of eight against the Mets (two Ls in two games), Braves (three Ls in three games), and Phillies (1-2 in three games). All seven of the losses have been by 2+ runs.

Look for that form to hold in this matchup and for the Mets to set up an opportunity to break out the brooms on Sunday.

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