Mets vs. Astros (June 22): Will Carrasco, Mets snag a split in Houston?

In a first game of a potential 2022 World Series preview, the Houston Astros brought out the bats in a big way against the New York Mets last night. Will we see more of the same in the second game of their short midweek set?

In Tuesday’s game, a three-run third and a four-run fifth, along with a solid night on the mound by Jose Urquidy, led the Astros to an 8-2 win for the AL West leaders over the NL East leaders.

The Astros are favored to win today’s matchup, but the Mets have done an excellent job of bouncing back quickly after losses this season and will fancy their chances to leave Houston with a split.

New York Mets vs. Houston Astros Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: New York Mets (45-25, 21-15 road, 1st in the NL East) vs. Houston Astros (42-25, 19-11 home, 1st in the AL West)
• Venue & Location: Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)
• Date: Wednesday, June 22, 2022
• Time: 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)
• TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: MLB Network

Mets vs. Astros Pitching Matchup

• New York Mets: Carlos Carrasco (2022: 13 starts, 8-2, 3.96 ERA, 75 IP, 75 K/16 BB)
• Houston Astros: Luis Garcia (2022: 12 starts, 4-5, 3.41 ERA, 66 IP, 69 K/18 BB)

Mets vs. Astros Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds via our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

• New York Mets +116
• Houston Astros -134

Over/Under

• OVER 8.5 (-118)
• UNDER 8.5 (-104)

Run Line

• New York Mets +1.5 (-182)
• Houston Astros -1.5 (+150)

Will This League-Leading Trend Prove Profitable Again for Bettors?

Giving up eight or more runs for the 11th time this season would not have been a pleasing sight for Mets manager Buck Showalter, especially because his team is 0-11 when giving up eight or more runs this season.

But no MLB team has been better at responding to losses this season, which should inspire some confidence for the team, fans, and bettors.

To date, the Mets are 20-4 following a loss this season. As of Tuesday’s results, the New York Yankees (12-4) are the only other team with wins in 70 percent of their games following a loss, with the Toronto Blue Jays falling from the ranks after their 12-inning loss to the Chicago White Sox.

Best Win Percentages Following a Loss (2022 MLB Season)

1. New York Mets (20-4, .833)
2. New York Yankees (12-4, .750)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (20-9, .690)
4. Houston Astros (17-8, .680)
5. San Diego Padres (18-9, .667)

Carlos Carrasco’s numbers on the road are partially affected by one really, really bad outing, as he gave up eight runs in 3.2 innings at St. Louis on April 27. In his other five road starts, he is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA and has given up 11 runs in 29 innings.

Garcia hasn’t had an outing that bad this season, but after posting a 2.39 ERA in 15 home appearances (13 starts) last season, he has a 5.14 ERA in six home starts in 2022.

Of the five Astros starters who have four or more starts at Minute Maid Park this season, the only other one with a subpar ERA is Framber Valdez (4.21), who has countered it by being outstanding on the road (4-1, 1.61 ERA in seven starts). Garcia has a 2.13 ERA in seven road starts, but his record is just 2-3.

In Garcia’s most recent home start, he gave up five runs in 4.1 innings in a loss to the Miami Marlins a dozen days ago. And for the first time in his MLB career, he gave up three homers in an outing.

Garcia has had just one good performance at home thus far this season, but the Astros at least have a winning record (3-2) in his home starts.

So, if the home team is to win today, either Garcia will need to be sharper than he has been, or the bats will need to produce as they did last night.

New York Mets vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bets

Mets vs. Astros Prediction: Astros to win

Mets vs. Astros Best Bets: Mets ML (+116), Mets/Astros UNDER 8.5 (-104) & Astros team total under 4.5 runs (-124) – all bets at BetOnline

Garcia’s home numbers don’t bring the warm and fuzzies, but even more notable is Houston’s record after scoring eight or more runs.

Last night’s game was the 12th time this season that the Astros put up eight or more runs. Their record in the games following those performances is 2-9, and they have been held to three or fewer runs in all nine losses.

Betting against the Astros when they are at home and coming off of a resounding win might raise a few eyebrows. But taking everything into consideration, the value lies with the Mets in this matchup.

The total value, meanwhile, lies with the under. In games following an Astros win this season, the under is 13-27-0. And while Carrasco has given up eight runs across his previous two starts, he has yet to allow three or more runs in three consecutive starts this season.

If you want even more value with the under for Houston’s team total, you can grab the under 4, which is available as an alternate total at Bovada Sportsbook (+105 at the time of writing).

Other MLB Content Today on Betting News (Wednesday, June 22)

• Blue Jays vs. White Sox Prediction & Best Bets for 6/22
• Phillies vs. Rangers Prediction & Best Bets for 6/22