Mets vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Picks (July 7)

The San Diego Padres put their three-game winning streak on the line when they host the New York Mets on Friday, July 7. This is the second Mets vs Padres series of the 2023 MLB season, coming after New York won two of three meetings at Citi Field back in April.

Sweep like honey 😇 #PadresSweep | #BringTheGold pic.twitter.com/FJusarIl6w

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 6, 2023

The Padres were last in action Wednesday, picking up a 5-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels. San Diego’s victory was led by Manny Machado’s three RBIs and 12th home run of the year while Fernado Tatis Jr. went 3-of-4 in the batter’s box and even crossed home plate twice.

On the flip side, the Mets just played last night against the Arizona Diamondbacks, winning dominantly in the form of a 9-0 victory. Francisco Lindor recorded a hit in all five of his at-bats, which included a home run and a pair of triples.

Can the Mets recreate April’s success against San Diego? Or will the Padres continue to find ways to win at Petco Park?

Here’s a look at everything you know heading into this evening’s Mets vs Padres clash, from the latest betting odds to a prediction with the best betting recommendation, courtesy of Betting News.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Game Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: New York Mets (41-46, 21-27 Away) vs. San Diego Padres (41-46, 23-22 Home)
• Venue & Location: Petco Park (San Diego, California)
• Date: Friday, July 7, 2023
• Game Time: 9:40 p.m. Eastern Time
• Where to Watch Mets vs Padres: SportsNet New York, MLB.TV

Mets vs Padres Odds

Game odds as of Friday, July 7 at 8:10 a.m. ET from Bovada. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• New York Mets +1.5 (-195)
• San Diego Padres -1.5 (+165)

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
• Under 7.5 Runs (-105)

Moneyline

• New York Mets +107
• San Diego Padres -128

Mets vs Padres Starting Pitchers

• Mets: Justin Verlander (11 starts —3-4, 3.66 ERA)
• Padres: Yu Darvish (14 starts —5-6, 4.84 ERA)

Mets vs Padres Betting Trends

• The Mets are 5-1 straight up in their last six games against the NL West.
• San Diego is 4-1 straight up in its last five games.
• The total has hit the under in four of the Mets’ last six road games.
• The total has hit the over in seven of San Diego’s last 10 games.
• The total has hit the under in each of the last four Mets-Padres matchups.

Mets vs Padres Game Preview

This matchup features two of the best starting pitchers of the last 20 years going head-to-head as Justin Verlander faces off against Yu Darvish.

Verlander — the reigning AL Cy Young winner —started off the 2023 campaign slowly, but has turned things back around lately. In his last four starts, the well-decorated veteran is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA while striking out 22 batters over 25 innings. Furthermore, he hasn’t allowed a run in his last 12 innings pitched.

Meanwhile, Darvish has been trending in the wrong direction lately. After pitching to a 3.67 ERA in his first nine starts, the five-time MLB All-Star has played to a 7.27 ERA in his five most recent outings. He’s also given up 10 earned runs and two homers on 15 hits allowed over his last 11 innings.

In other words, Darvish needs to step things up if the Padres hope to win tonight. It won’t be easy, though. The Mets’ batters have been playing well during their five-game winning streak, slashing .275/.374/.569 while racking up 12 home runs with only 6.8 strikeouts per game.

After putting up nine runs against the NL West-leading Diamondbacks, it’s clear that the Mets’ attack isn’t showing any signs of letting up.

Francisco Lindor legs out his first triple of the year 🏃 pic.twitter.com/W8lugc5BRx

— SNY (@SNYtv) July 7, 2023

At the same time, the Padres have been fairly solid at Petco Park recently. They’ve won six of their last eight home, including the last three in a row by a combined score of 23-11.

Although the Mets are only 21-27 on the road, they’re 4-1 in their last five away games after sweeping the D-Backs at Chase Field. In other words, don’t expect New York to just roll over in San Diego tonight.

Another interesting trend to note is that the Padres have struggled with fellow NL teams for quite some time now. Bob Melvin’s club has lost seven of its last eight National League matchups.

For reference, the Mets are 5-1 against their last six NL opponents.

Mets vs Padres Prediction and Picks

Mets vs Padres Prediction: Mets 5, Padres 3

Mets vs Padres Best Bet: Mets ML (Best Value: +107 ) & Francisco Lindor to Record a Run (+110)

The Padres have the home-field advantage tonight, but I’m taking the Mets to pull off the upset. First of all, Verlander has been playing much better than Darvish on the mound in recent weeks. Secondly, New York just beat a really good Diamondbacks team, meaning momentum is on its side. Throw in how poorly San Diego has done against the NL and it’s easy to side with the underdog.

Another good Mets vs Padres bet worth exploring is Francisco Lindor recording a run at +110 odds. After last night’s performance, Lindor now has 16 runs in his last 17 games, making good on this prop 10 times over that span. He’s recorded at least one run four times in his most recent six outings, including three last night.

Capitalizing on his terrific performance in Arizona, look for Lindor to make more noise tonight.

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