Max Scherzer Injury: Cy Young Odds Plummet But Mets Should Survive

One of the biggest splashes of this past MLB offseason saw three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer sign a three-year, $130 million contract with the ambitious New York Mets.

For some, that may seem like a lot of money to give to someone who will be 38 in July. But Scherzer has been one of MLB’s best pitchers of the last decade. Only former Detroit Tigers teammate Justin Verlander and former Dodgers teammate Clayton Kershaw are in that same air.

So, it was an investment well worth making for the Mets, who are aiming to win and win now after building talent and investing heavily across the last couple of years.

Oblique Injury Halts Successful Start for Scherzer

Their investment in Scherzer has already started paying off early this season. The future Hall of Famer has shown no signs of slowing down, with an excellent start to life in the Big Apple.

Entering last night’s start against the St. Louis Cardinals, Scherzer was one of the leading favorites for this year’s NL Cy Young Award, along with Milwaukee Brewers hurler Corbin Burnes, the reigning winner, and San Francisco’s Carlos Rodon, another offseason mover.

And last night, Scherzer was motoring along against the Cardinals, allowing only one earned run over 5.2 innings. Then, with the Mets ahead 6-2 in the bottom of the sixth, Scherzer exited with an injury to his left side.

The NL East leaders finished off an 11-4 win to give Scherzer his fifth win of the season, putting him in a tie for the MLB lead with Verlander, another former teammate in Walker Buehler, and San Francisco’s Logan Webb.

But it will be his last win for a while. Earlier today, it was announced that he will miss 6 to 8 weeks with a moderate to high grade internal oblique strain.

With the Scherzer injury only set to keep him out until July, there should be no panic about the Mets’ outlook, at least for now. The timeline puts him on target to be back before the MLB All-Star break, and the Mets should get two-time NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom back at some point.

NL East Standings Entering Thursday, May 19

• 1. New York Mets 26-14
• 2. Philadelphia Phillies 18-20 (7 GB)
• 3. Miami Marlins 17-20 (7.5 GB)
• 4. Atlanta Braves 17-21 (8 GB)
• 5. Washington Nationals 13-26 (12.5 GB)

Understandably, an injury to such an important player will have at least a bit of an impact on odds. The Scherzer injury news did indeed bring about a very slight shift with MLB division odds, with the Mets now just -175 to win the NL East. Last week, they were -200 to win their first NL East title since 2015.

With the biggest lead in all of the MLB divisions and the second-best win percentage in the National League, behind only the Dodgers, the Mets are currently in a strong position and should continue to be even with Scherzer injured.

They appear to be more equipped, both in terms of personnel and personality, to handle Scherzer’s injury absence than last season’s team would have.

After making an early case for both Cy Young and MVP honors, Jacob deGrom did not pitch after July 7. At that time, the Mets were 48-37, but they went only 29-48 the rest of the way to finish third in the NL East and miss the playoffs.

With a new, experienced manager in Buck Showalter, the bats in a better spot, depth in their rotation, and confidence seemingly high in the clubhouse, the Mets should be just fine while Scherzer is sidelined.

Scherzer’s NL Cy Young Odds Plummet After Injury

The bigger impact with regards to odds is a more individual one. Until his unexpected exit last night, Scherzer was well on course to become only the fifth pitcher to win the Cy Young four or more times (Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, and Greg Maddux are in that club for now).

But a six-to-eight-week absence is going to be a serious dent in those chances, unless he dominates upon returning. Last night’s start was his eighth in the first six weeks of the season, so that is a lot of starts for other contenders to put Scherzer in the distance.

And 2022 Cy Young Award odds now reflect his greatly diminished Cy Young hopes.

The latest update at BetOnline Sportsbook has the injured Scherzer at +4500 to win the award, which puts him in a tie for 17th with Julio Urias.

Burnes, despite currently holding just a 1-2 record in his eight starts, is a +350 favorite to repeat, with Rodon (+650), Pablo Lopez of the Marlins (+950), Buehler (+1000), and Atlanta’s Max Fried (+1600) now making up the top five.

Awards voters don’t always downgrade someone due to time missed, but if the likes of Burnes, Rodon, and Buehler stay healthy, you have to lean towards it being unlikely that they all have the kind of dip that would minimize the impact that Scherzer’s injury has had on his Cy Young hopes.

So, he will likely have to wait until next year to join Clemens, Johnson, Carlton, and Maddux. But while that is certainly disappointing for Scherzer–and Scherzer bettors–he will be back in plenty of time to aid the Mets’ push to erase the sour taste of last year and make a run at the NL pennant and 2022 World Series title.