Marlins vs. Rays (May 24): Standout arms to shine in Sunshine State showdown

Two top Cy Young Award candidates face off tonight in the Sunshine State as Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bay Rays host Pablo Lopez and the Miami Marlins.

Lopez ranks third in the majors and first in the NL in ERA (1.57), and among the NL Cy Young odds at BetOnline, only Corbin Burnes (+350) and Carlos Rodon (+750) have better NL Cy Young odds than he and Joe Musgrove (both +1100).

McClanahan is second in the league in strikeouts (65), fourth in WHIP (0.86), and 13th in ERA (2.33). At +1000 entering today, he has the sixth best AL Cy Young odds, behind Justin Verlander (+450), Kevin Gausman (+600), Shohei Ohtani (+900), Dylan Cease (+900), and Gerrit Cole (+900).

With two of MLB’s best pitchers on the mound, are we certain to have a low-scoring pitchers’ duel tonight at Tropicana Field?

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Marlins (18-22, 8-10 road, 4th in the NL East) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (24-17, 13-9 home, 2nd in the AL East)
• Venue & Location: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)
• Date: Tuesday, May 24, 2022
• Time: 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time
• How to Watch Today’s Marlins vs. Rays Game: MLB Network

Marlins vs. Rays Pitching Matchup

• Miami Marlins: Pablo Lopez (2022: 8 starts, 4-1, 1.57 ERA)
• Tampa Bay Rays: Shane McClanahan (2022: 8 starts, 3-2, 2.33 ERA)

Marlins vs. Rays Odds

Odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

• Miami Marlins +128
• Tampa Bay Rays -152

Over/Under

• OVER 6.5 (-108)
• UNDER 6.5 (-112)

Run Line

• Miami Marlins +1.5 (-184)
• Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+152)

Expect Lopez, McClanahan to Keep Bats at Bay

Lopez enters this start after having his shortest start of the season, as he went only three innings and allowed three runs, four hits, and a season-high three walks against the Nationals last Wednesday. He was trailing when he exited, but he received a no-decision in a 5-4, 10-inning loss.

The Marlins won all four of Lopez’s starts in April, but the luck has dried up so far this month, with only one win out of his four May starts thus far.

All three losses have come by one run, so if you are backing the Rays to win tonight, there is a lot of value in backing the home team to win by one to three runs. At the time of writing, that winning margin is +120 at BetOnline.

Month-by-Month Splits for Pablo Lopez

• April: 4 starts, 3-0, 0.39 ERA
• May: 4 starts, 1-1, 2.78 ERA

Results have gone the opposite direction for McClanahan and the Rays. The Rays won only two of his five April starts, but they have won all three of his May starts.

In his most recent start, he allowed one run, four hits, and no walks and struck out seven in seven innings as the Rays beat the Tigers 8-1.

Month-by-Month Splits for Shane McClanahan

• April: 5 starts, 1-2, 3.00 ERA
• May: 3 starts, 2-0, 1.40 ERA

On the season, the Rays average almost a full run less per game at home (3.91) than on the road (4.85), and the Marlins perform better at home (4.55 runs per game) than on the road (3.78 runs per game).

Additionally, the Marlins have been held to three or fewer runs 12 times in 18 road games, while the Rays have been held to three or fewer runs 13 times in their 22 home games. So, the percentages are certainly in favor of a lower-scoring game in tonight’s matchup.

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Best Bets

Marlins vs. Rays Prediction: Rays to win

Marlins vs. Rays Best Bets: UNDER 6.5 (Best Value: -112 at BetOnline) & Rays to win by 1-3 runs (+120 at BetOnline)

Both teams rank well in bullpen ERA–the Marlins (3.23) are sixth in MLB, while the Rays (3.39) are ninth–which is reassuring when it comes to potential nerves about the under being spoiled in the late innings.

As mentioned above, there is a lot of value in backing the home team to win by one to three runs tonight. While the Marlins are just 9-15 in games decided by one to three runs, the Rays are 15-9 in games decided by that margin.

Taking some Tums might be or Pepto might be a wise idea if you opt to do this, but there’s even more value in backing the Rays to win by exactly one run (+330 at BetOnline & +310 at Bovada Sportsbook).

The Rays are just 8-6 in one-run games, but that is a positive trend compared to last year, when they were just 20-25 in one-run games, and they sport a 5-2 record in one -run games at the Trop.

The Marlins lead MLB in one-run games with 19 but are only 6-13 in those games, which includes a 4-7 mark in one-run games on the road. So, if things are especially tight, things are most likely to favor the Rays.