Marlins vs. Phillies (June 13): Can the NL Cy Young Favorite Shut Down the Phillies?

The Philadelphia Phillies saw their nine-game win streak come to an end on Sunday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but they will get a chance to start a new one against the visiting Miami Marlins on Monday night.

The Diamondbacks claimed a 13-1 win to close out the series, but after wins on Friday and Saturday, the Phillies had already claimed the series win, their third in a row since manager Joe Girardi was fired on June 3 and replaced by interim manager Rob Thomson.

A tough assignment awaits Philadelphia as they aim to position themselves for a fourth straight series win, as the Marlins visit Citizens Bank Park after taking two of three against the Astros in Houston.

In the series opener, the Phils will go up against Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara, who is currently the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award.

But Aaron Nola is coming off of one of his best performances of the season and has won his last three starts since a 1-4 start, so things are trending up for the veteran righty as he prepares to face Miami.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Marlins (27-31, 12-17 road, 4th in the NL East) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (30-30, 17-16 home, 3rd in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
• Date: Monday, June 13, 2022
• Marlins vs. Phillies Game Time: 7:05 p.m. Eastern Time

Marlins vs. Phillies Pitching Matchup

• Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (2022: 12 starts, 6-2, 1.61 ERA)
• Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola (2022: 12 starts, 4-4, 3.50 ERA)

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

• Miami Marlins +120
• Philadelphia Phillies -142

Over/Under

• OVER 7.5 (-118)
• UNDER 7.5 (-104)

Run Line

• Miami Marlins +1.5 (-178)
• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+146)

Will Alcantara Add to His Budding Cy Young Resume in Philadelphia?

Recently, Alcantara has moved ahead a group of contenders that includes rotation mate Pablo Lopez, reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, and a number of other notable names to the top of the NL Cy Young odds.

Entering today, the 26-year-old righty slots in at +370 at BetOnline, ahead of Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (+500), Burnes (+550), 2021 runner-up Zack Wheeler (+1300), Braves pitcher Max Fried, and Lopez (both +1500).

Why has he made such a big leap? Well, in his last six starts, he is 4-0 with a 0.56 ERA. He has pitched at least seven innings in each start, and in 48 innings pitched, he has struck out 46 and allowed six runs (just three earned), 24 hits, and eight walks.

To begin June, Alcantara has not allowed a run in his first two starts this month. He went seven shutout innings in a win over the San Francisco Giants eleven days ago and followed that by tossing nine scoreless innings in an extra-inning win over the Washington Nationals five days ago.

Month-by-Month Splits for Sandy Alcantara

• April: 4 starts, 2-0, 1.78 ERA, .230 OBA, 1.184 WHIP
• May: 6 starts, 3-2, 2.13 ERA, .177 OBA, 0.898 WHIP
• June: 2 starts, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, .161 OBA, 0.688 WHIP

He has already beaten the Phillies this season, doing so in Miami on April 14. In that outing, which was his second start of the season, he allowed seven runs, two hits, and one walk and struck out five in six innings in the Marlins 4-3 win.

Nola has been outstanding in two of his last three starts, Against the Braves on May 26, he finished two outs short of a complete game, as he allowed one run and five hits and struck out ten in a 4-1 win. And in his most recent start, he pitched eight shutout innings, allowed just four hits (and no walks), and struck out six in a win over the Brewers in Milwaukee five days ago.

But consistency has been a bit of an issue for Nola this season, just as it was last season. He has allowed two or fewer runs in back-to-back starts only once this season, and he has a 4.41 ERA in six home starts this season compared to a 2.70 ERA in six road starts.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Best Bets

Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction: Marlins to win

Marlins vs. Phillies Best Bets: Marlins ML (+120 at BetOnline, Bovada Sportsbook, BetUS & MyBookie) & UNDER 7.5 (+100 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Given that the Phillies just won nine games in a row and Nola is coming off of an outstanding start against the Brewers, the immediate temptation is to go with the home team to take the win.

But Alcantara is on fire right now, and the Marlins are definitely playing well currently. Sunday’s 9-4 loss at Minute Maid Park was just their third in 11 games, and there’s no shame in losing to Justin Verlander, who picked up his eighth win of the season and pitched 6.2 shutout innings before allowing a two-out grand slam in the seventh inning.

For what it’s worth, the Marlins (15-15) are better following a loss than the Phillies, who have a losing record in that scenario.

There’s a good chance that these odds shorten over the course of the day, so if you are backing the Marlins, that is something to follow and consider. But at this number, Alcantara and the Marlins are excellent value to stay hot and score the series-opening road win over the Phillies.

Also, with two of the NL’s most talented arms on the hill, the under has a lot of value, especially if the total sticks at 7.5 or happens to go up. Even if one pitcher is not at his best, it’s hard to see either team scoring enough runs to push this one over.