Mariners vs Pirates: MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/16)

Friday Night brings us quite the pitching duel on Apple TV as the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Seattle Mariners at PNC Park. Two righty studs take the bump for their team, and with their sub 3.00 ERAs and sub 1.00 WHIPs, we see an extremely low total, which could indicate a pitching duel is upon us. Logan Gilbert and rookie sensation, Paul Skenes will pitch for their squad tonight in a very impactful game.

While the Pirates are in last place of the NL Central, they are just 12.5 games out and just 7.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. With about 40 games to play, it will take quite the hot streak to sneak it but crazier things have happened. As for the Mariners, they have dropped 3 straight and now sit 3 games behind the Astros for 1st place in the AL West. They will likely need to win the division to make the playoffs, as they are 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot as it currently stands. Clearly both teams need a win here tonight.

This will be the 1st game of a 3 game weekend series between the teams who have not seen each other this season. While the Mariners have lost 3 straight, the Pirates are outdoing them, dropping 10 straight games, plus 5 of their L6 at home. They are 27-31 at PNC Park this season and the Mariners are 26-33 on the road. Both teams’ bats are not that great, but hey, somebody has to win this game.

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Pitching Duel Tonight

Game Information – Mariners Pirates

• Venue & Location: PNC Park (Pittsburgh, PA)
• Date: Friday, August 16th, 2024
• First Pitch: 6:40pm Eastern
• Broadcast: Apple TV+

Mariners vs Pirates Starting Pitchers

• Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert (7-8, 2.91 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes (6-2, 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Mariners +1.5 (-198)
• Pirates -1.5 (+173)

Money Line

• Mariners +111
• Pirates -121

Total

• Over 7 (+110)
• Under 7 (-130)

Low Total for These Two Starters

Before I get into the studs that are these pitchers, let me briefly talk about these… *vomits profusely*… hitters. These teams are not great at the plate, at all. The Mariners are the worst hitting team by Batting Average, hitting just .216 as a team. While that number climbs to .225 on the road, they face a very tough matchup. Seattle is also hitting just .202 since the break and .188 in the month of August, so I don’t necessarily see them getting to Paul Skenes at all.

As for the Pirates bats, they aren’t much better. Pittsburgh has lost 10 straight and bats .235 overall, ranking 24th in the MLB. Their numbers drop a couple points at home and against RHP, but despite their losses, they have connected to the ball more recently. After batting .248 in July, the Pirates are hitting .250 since the break and .257 as a team in August. However, they still need to find a way to get by Logan Gilbert.

Gilbert vs Skenes

Paul Skenes is off to an incredible rookie season, but believe it or not, he pitches slightly better on the road. While the splits aren’t enough to make a huge difference in my eyes, it is worth looking at. Plus, he hasn’t won a start since before the All Star Break. Skenes is coming off a loss to the Dodgers where he allowed 4 runs on 6 hits in 6 innings, but also struck out 8 batters. Since the break, Skenes has a 3.21 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Still solid numbers, but not quite what we’ve seen out of him. Luckily he has an easier matchup pitching against the Mariners, as his last three starts were against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros.

Logan Gilbert’s away splits are slightly worse, but like Skenes, not drastic enough to really come into play. Gilbert is coming off one of his best outings of the season. He pitched 7 shutout innings against the Mets, allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk in the process. Prior to that, he had lost 3 straight outings, including a very rough one at Boston. In Gilbert’s last away start, he only lasted 2.2 innings before giving up 7 runs on 7 hits to the Red Sox, but he’s clearly focused up since then. Gilbert has pitched 8 shutout innings on the road twice this year in Miami and Houston, as well as 6.2 shutout innings on the road in Texas.

Tonight, I think we are in for a classic pitching duel. We have two absolute studs and two terrible hitting teams. The total in this game makes complete sense to me, and I will be looking at an alternate route to place my coin.

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets

Mariners vs Pirates Prediction: Pirates Win

Best Bet: Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-105) BetOnline

Lock it in, brace yourself, and get ready to sweat. This one will be gross. The Mariners bats are so bad, hitting less than .200 this month as a team, and I would hate to face Paul Skenes in a bounce back spot here. Skenes is hungry for a win, and in front of his home crowd, I think he shows out. He’s allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 13.2 innings at home over the course of 2 starts. Obviously we need either 0 or 1 to cash our bet, but against the Mariners it shouldn’t be an issue.

I glanced at his strikeout prop, but 8.5 for plus money is a little too much for me, as I could see him only pitching 5-6 innings. Now, the Mariners strikeout a ton and Skenes could certainly clear that line in a small amount of innings, but tonight I’ll just back him to keep them off the bases. According to batters-box.com (Do NOT Forget the Hyphen), the Mariners have 0 Elite hitters, 0 Great hitters, and just 1 with an above average matchup against Skenes. It’s Julio Rodriguez and he won’t even see the field. Every Seattle hitter has a Poor Matchup wOBA, which in my mind translates to them striking out or making terrible contact.

Either way, I see Skenes shoving and pitching 6 shutout innings in the process.

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