Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Preview: Back Buehler to Boost Cy Young Resume in Cincinnati?

Max Scherzer? Corbin Burnes? Walker Buehler? The NL Cy Young award is anything but decided as the final two weeks of MLB regular-season action approach. Current MLB betting odds have Scherzer as a slight favorite over Burnes, with Buehler a little behind. But Buehler has the chance to improve his claim tonight as he faces the Reds in Cincinnati.

Buehler was the favorite recently, but with Burnes and Scherzer displaying more dominance than Buehler in some recent outings, the odds have shifted in favor of the latter two. But Buehler has the best record of the bunch, and he also has been the picture of consistency throughout the season, more so than any other pitcher in the AL or NL.

Buehler’s consistency is part of why the Dodgers have managed to stay in the NL West race despite the San Francisco Giants winning, winning, and winning some more. And if things shake out the right way, the Dodgers and Giants could be tied atop the division when the book is closed on the day’s action.

The Reds have their own fight to contend with, as they are in a four-way battle for the second NL wild-card spot. They’re currently on the outside looking in, a game behind of the St. Louis Cardinals, a half-game behind the San Diego Padres, and a game and a half ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. With the Cardinals and Padres meeting in San Diego, the Reds need to keep the deficit where it is, at worst.

How will tonight’s series opener in Cincinnati play out? Will the Dodgers stay hot and potentially knot up the NL West, or will Luis Castillo and the Reds help their wild-card hopes with a win?

Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53) vs Cincinnati Reds (76-71), MLB Network, 7:10 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers

• Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (14-3, 2.32 ERA)
• Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (7-15, 4.24 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Odds

Moneyline

• Los Angeles Dodgers -172
• Cincinnati Reds +144

Total

• OVER 8.5 (-105)
• UNDER 8.5 (-115)

Run Line

• Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-106)
• Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-113)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Friday, September 17, 2021 at 3:05 p.m. ET. Want to see betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for the day’s other MLB matchups? Check out our MLB odds.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Consensus

Moneyline

• 40% Los Angeles Dodgers
• 60% Cincinnati Reds

Total (at O/U 8.5)

• 60% OVER 8.5
• 40% UNDER 8.5

Run Line (at -/+1.5)

• 20% Los Angeles Dodgers
• 80% Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Matchup: MLB Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Outlook

The Dodgers are hitting the road for their final road action of the regular season, facing the Reds, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. Will they be atop the NL West when they return to Dodger Stadium for their final two series against the Padres and Brewers? They are now the MLB betting favorite to take the division title, with their -125 odds just shading the Giants (+105).

The Dodgers are 32-10 in their last 42 games, and good pitching and timely hitting are the main reasons for that run. Buehler leads the way in the former area, as he has all season long. No more in the majors has as many quality starts as Buehler, who has 25 quality starts in 29 starts this season.

Only three times this season has Buehler given up four or more earned runs. As it happens, one of those three times was against tonight’s opposition. On April 27, he allowed five runs in 6.1 innings against the Reds, receiving a no-decision in a 6-5 loss at Dodger Stadium.

Buehler had a shaky start to open September, allowing a season-worst six runs in a season-low three innings against the Giants. He responded to not making it at least five innings for the first time this season by allowing only two runs in seven innings against the Padres last Saturday. It was the 12th time this season that he pitched at least seven innings and allowed two or fewer runs.

Given how consistent Buehler has been all season, the Reds will need the best version of Castillo. But even if they do, it may not matter much. Castillo had a five-start quality start streak snapped in his last start against the Cardinals. In those five starts, the Reds scored ten total runs–six of them in one game.

MLB Betting Trends to Consider for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds

• The Reds have not been a home underdog frequently this season, but it is not a spot in which they have thrived. In 12 games as a home underdog, they are 2-10 SU and have lost nine of those games by multiple runs. They have the lowest success rate in the league as a home underdog both straight up and up against the run line.
• In Buehler’s 12 road starts this season, the Dodgers have a 9-3 record. Seven of those nine wins have come by multiple runs.
• In Buehler’s 29 overall starts this season, the Dodgers have a 20-9 record. Of those 20 wins, 14 have come by multiple runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Best Bets

Los Angeles Dodgers RL -1.5

There are some spots where you ignore the trends and back the hot hand, like with tonight’s Phillies vs Mets matchup. Here, the trends back up why the hot hand is the value move.

Castillo has pitched well for the most part recently, and the Reds are coming off of a much-needed win. But they have also lost 12 of 17, and the disappearance of their offense is the chief reason for that. Over their last 17 games, the Reds have averaged 3.4 runs per game. Take away a 12-run outburst against the Cardinals on September 1, and that average goes down to 2.9 runs per game in the other 16 games. A matchup against a pitcher who is so consistently good to great is not ideal, to say the least.