Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction, Best Bets & Odds (6/8)

After coming from behind to win last night, the Toronto Blue Jays are eyeing a series win over the Houston Astros. But with their ace on the mound for tonight’s series finale at Rogers Centre, Houston will be hopeful of leaving Toronto with a split.

The Astros (36-26, 18-12 away) lit up the scoreboard for 11 runs in Monday’s series opener but have mustered just three runs in the last two games, both Toronto wins.

Yesterday, the Blue Jays (35-28, 17-11 home) fell behind 2-0 on Yordan Alvarez’s 17th home run of the season, but that would be all the damage done against Chris Bassitt in Toronto’s 3-2 win.

Will we see another low-scoring game to wrap up the series? Read on for our prediction and best bets for tonight’s Astros vs Blue Jays matchup.

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Before we offer up our picks for this matchup, let’s take a look at the odds, as well as tonight’s starting pitchers.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

Moneyline

• Houston Astros -116
• Toronto Blue Jays -102

Over/Under

• Over 8 (-120)
• Under 8 (-102)

Run Line

• Houston Astros -1.5 (+136)
• Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-164)

Pitching Matchup for Astros vs Blue Jays

• Houston Astros: LHP Framber Valdez (12 starts, 6-4, 2.16 ERA)
• Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Jose Berrios (12 starts, 5-4, 3.66 ERA)

Valdez, Berrios Looking to Continue Recent Success

Following Monday’s 11-4 win for Houston, pitching has dominated the last two games in Toronto. The Astros got solid starts out of both Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco, but their two outings were outdone by gems by Kevin Gausman and Bassitt.

Based on what tonight’s starters have done, pitching is set to dominate proceedings in the series finale.

Valdez is 4-0 in his last five starts, and in his last three starts, he has allowed just one run, 13 hits, and four walks in 22 innings. As a result, Valdez (+750) is now third in line in the latest AL Cy Young Award odds behind Shane McClanahan (+310) and Gerrit Cole (+600).

Berrios (+20000) isn’t in the mix like Valdez, but he has certainly shown what he is capable of recently. He has issued ten walks in his last three starts, but he has also allowed only two runs and 13 hits in 18.2 innings in going 2-0 across those three starts. Overall, since starting the season with two poor starts, Berrios has allowed three or more runs only twice in his last ten starts.

In addition to the good results for Valdez and Berrios, season trends for both the Astros and Blue Jays line up well for the under in tonight’s matchup in Toronto.

In Houston’s 30 road games, the under has hit 17 times (56.7%). Only five teams have had the under hit with a higher percentage. Additionally, the under is 14-10-1 in Houston’s games following a loss.

On the other side, the under is 17-9-2 in Toronto’s home games and 18-14-2 in Toronto’s games following a win.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Astros vs Blue Jays: Astros to win

Best Bets for Astros vs Blue Jays: Astros ML & Astros/Blue Jays under 8

Toronto’s wins this season have largely come in chunks, as they have won three or more games in a row six times so far in 2023 (by comparison, the Astros have won three or more games in a row five times).

That said, I’m rolling with Valdez and the visitors to come away with a split tonight. Dating back to last season, the Astros have won each of Valdez’s last 11 road starts, including his first four this season. That streak will end at some point, but it won’t be tonight.