Guardians vs. Royals (July 10): Will runs be at a premium in the rubber game in K.C.?

After splitting the first two games of their series, the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals will engage in a Zach vs. Zack battle in today’s rubber game in K.C.

In Friday’s opener, the Royals scored three runs in their final two at-bats and walked it off in the bottom of the ninth.

There was no such drama in yesterday’s matchup, as Cleveland brought out the lumber in a big way from the outset, pounding out 23 hits in a 13-1 rout.

Five hitters had three-hit games for the Guardians, including AL MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, who hit his first homer since June 10 and drove in his first three runs this month.

Hosey is 2-2 with a homer and 3 RBI in 2 innings today.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/nuPQPSGVP0

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) July 9, 2022

After getting pummeled yesterday, the Royals will look to Zack Greinke to continue his home success and keep Cleveland’s bats quiet while their own bats do some damage against Zach Plesac, who has little to show for a prolonged run of solid starts.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Cleveland Guardians (41-41, 21-24 away, 2nd in the AL Central) vs. Kansas City Royals (31-52, 15-26 home, 5th in the AL Central)
• Venue & Location: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
• Date: Sunday, July 10, 2022
• Game Time: 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)
• TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: Bally Sports Great Lakes (Guardians), Bally Sports Kansas City (Royals), MLB Extra Innings/MLB.TV (subscription packages)

Guardians vs. Royals Pitching Matchup

• Cleveland Guardians: Zach Plesac (2022: 15 starts, 2-6, 3.80 ERA)
• Kansas City Royals: Zack Greinke (2022: 13 starts, 2-5, 4.85 ERA)

Guardians vs. Royals Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also feature odds from other online betting sites that we have reviewed and recommend.

Moneyline

• Cleveland Guardians -118
• Kansas City Royals +100

Over/Under

• OVER 9 (-115)
• UNDER 9 (-105)

Run Line

• Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+140)
• Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-170)

Should You Back the Under in K.C.?

It’s no surprise that the total is where it is for today’s game, given that it was 8.5 on Friday and 9 yesterday.

But notable numbers for both starting hurlers line up well for the second under in this series. At the time of writing, the under is available at -105 at most of our recommended sportsbooks, which is great value considering how good the chances are that it hits.

Plesac enters this matchup with seven straight quality starts, a stretch that has seen his ERA drop from 5.40 to 3.80. In this stretch, he has a 2.14 ERA and has allowed 11 runs (10 earned), 34 hits, and nine walks in 42 innings.

The Guardians are 4-3 in that stretch, including 2-2 on the road. Plesac’s record is just 1-2 in the four road starts and overall, thanks to a lack of run support in his last two road starts against the Twins and Tigers.

But he has a 2.25 ERA in those four starts, which has seen his road ERA drop to 4.67 after having some rough results on some of his travels in April and May.

Greinke, meanwhile, is in excellent form at home and at home only. In his most recent start, he allowed 5+ runs for the fourth straight road start, but he has yet to allow more than two runs in a home start this season.

Home and Away Splits for Zack Greinke in 2022

• Home (six starts): 2-1, 2.14 ERA, 33.2 IP, 30 H, 8 R (8 ER), HR, 5 BB, 13 K, 1.04 WHIP, .242 OBA
• Away (seven starts): 0-4, 7.46 ERA, 35 IP, 47 H, 31 R (29 ER), 9 HR, 8 BB, 21 K, 1.57 WHIP, .318 OBA

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction and Best Bets

Guardians vs. Royals Prediction: Royals to win

Guardians vs. Royals Best Bets: Royals ML (+104 at BetUS) & Guardians team total under 4.5 runs (-104 at BetOnline)

The Royals have won each of Greinke’s last three home starts, allowing just four runs in those three games. And in his six home starts, they have allowed just ten runs.

The Guardians have scored nine total runs in his last five road starts, so the odds are in favor of Greinke continuing his home success today. If he does, I like the value with the Royals to take the rubber game at home.

Other Guardians vs. Royals Content for Today’s Matchup

• Guardians vs. Royals Picks, Stats & Trends (7/10)

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