Cubs vs. Brewers (July 4): Is the over the play in Milwaukee?

After winning three consecutive series, the Chicago Cubs now take aim at the NL Central leaders, as they start this week in Milwaukee with a three-game series against the Brewers.

Chicago isn’t anywhere near the MLB playoff picture and likely won’t be at any point, but they are on a nice little run as the All-Star break approaches, with back-to-back-to-back series wins over the Cardinals, Reds, and Red Sox.

Following their trip to Milwaukee, the Cubbies have four games against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, so if they come out of this week with a winning record, it will be well-earned.

As for the Brewers, they are coming off of a split of their four-game road series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. With home series against the Cubs and Pirates on their schedule, this week could be a good opportunity to put a little space in the NL Central standings between themselves and St. Louis, who has four games against the Braves and three at home against the Phillies on their agenda for the week.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Chicago Cubs (32-47, 15-20 away, tied for 3rd in the NL Central) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (46-35, 19-15 home, 1st in the NL Central)
• Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
• Date: Monday, July 4, 2022
• Game Time: 4:10 p.m. Eastern Time (3:10 p.m. local time)
• TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: MLB Network

Cubs vs. Brewers Pitching Matchup

• Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele
• Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Lauer (2022: 14 starts, 6-3, 4.02 ERA)

Cubs vs. Brewers Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Moneyline

• Chicago Cubs +134
• Milwaukee Brewers -158

Over/Under

• OVER 8.5 (-122)
• UNDER 8.5 (+100)

Run Line

• Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-146)
• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+122)

Trends Point to the Over in Milwaukee

After a very bright start this season, things have gone backwards for Lauer in recent weeks.

Some bumps might have been inevitable, but his recent results represent a major drop-off. In his first eight starts, he allowed three runs only twice. But he has allowed three runs in each of his last six starts, which has seen his ERA balloon from 2.31 to 4.02.

A Tale of Two Stretches for Lauer

• First Eight Starts: 5-1, 2.31 ERA
• Last Six Starts: 1-2, 6.54 ERA

The Brewers are likely going to need to put a few runs on the board to get the win in this matchup, given Lauer’s recent numbers. Fortunately, that has not been much of an issue thus far. In his 14 starts, Milwaukee has scored five or more runs nine times and has been held to fewer than four runs just twice.

Steele enters this start off of the back of a solid outing against the Reds last time out, as he allowed just one run in five innings in an 8-3 win over Cincinnati last Wednesday. But he has been hit hard in his last couple of road starts, allowing 13 runs and 14 hits in just 7.2 innings.

But he is getting some decent run support, even if it hasn’t frequently translated into wins. The Cubs have scored 21 runs in his last three starts and have scored five or more runs in nine of his starts this season.

The Cubs were limited in their last two games against the Red Sox, but in the nine previous games, they scored 5+ runs six times. The Brewers have done their fair share of scoring recently as well, tallying 5+ runs seven times in their last ten games.

All of this points favorably to the continuation of a season-long trend between these two teams. In ten head-to-head meetings so far this season, Chicago and Milwaukee have combined for 9+ runs seven times.

That includes the two previous times Steele and Lauer were the pitching matchup, a 9-1 home win for the Brewers on April 30 and an 8-7 home win for the Cubs on May 31, which proved to be the start of Lauer’s struggles.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bets

Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction: Brewers to win

Cubs vs. Brewers Best Bets: Brewers ML (-145 at BetMGM) & Cubs/Brewers over 8.5 (-122 at BetOnline & BetUS)

Lauer has a 2.25 ERA in his five home starts this season, but that looks far less impressive when you consider he allowed just two runs in his first three home starts and eight (six earned) in his last two.

Steele went 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA in June, but his worst start was his lone one that came on the road, where he has a 7.29 ERA in five starts this season.

He also sports a 5.21 ERA in seven daytime starts, so that doesn’t necessarily bode well for a matchup against a team that hits much better in day games (.248 to .231 in night games) and just hit .295 (44 for 149) in their series against the Pirates.

While Lauer is not pitching well at the moment, the Brewers have won two of his last three starts, and I like them to pick up the win in this game. I recommend avoiding the ML if it moves beyond -160, however. There are better values on the board, both when it comes to other betting options for this game and ML bets for other games on the day’s MLB betting slate.

But totals are the bigger focus of the best bets here, and whether you get the total at 8.5 or 9, the over is the move, and so is backing the team total for both teams.

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