Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Preview: Can Keuchel Shake Road Struggles to Put White Sox on Cusp of Central Title?

Two MLB division titles could officially be sewn up today, as the AL Central and NL Central are on the verge of being done and dusted. Both races have basically been over for some time, and there have been no MLB betting odds available for either division’s outcome for a while. But today could be the day that the Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers are able to officially celebrate and start looking ahead to the upcoming playoffs.

In the AL Central, the Chicago White Sox enter today 11.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Indians, who are 73-76 after a doubleheader sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals yesterday. With a win this afternoon against the Detroit Tigers, all the White Sox will need to be able to pop a little champagne before bedtime is for Kansas City to see off Cleveland again. It will be their first AL Central title since 2008, so it will be an exciting accomplishment for the franchise even if it has been a foregone conclusion for months.

Don’t expect the Tigers to just roll over for the White Sox, however. The Tigers have not mailed it in for the year and are using September to help build a foundation for next season. Finishing second in the AL Central might not count for much with how far ahead the White Sox are and how none of the other teams in the division are at or above .500. But the Tigers have put that achievement in their reach with some winning baseball, including in yesterday’s series opener against the White Sox.

Will the White Sox put themselves in position to potentially be able to celebrate tonight, or will the Tigers make them have to wait just a little longer for their long-awaited division title?

Chicago White Sox (85-65) vs Detroit Tigers (73-78), Bally Sports Detroit, 1:10 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers

• Chicago White Sox: Dallas Keuchel (8-9, 5.23 ERA)
• Detroit Tigers: Tyler Alexander (2-3, 4.13 ERA)

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Odds

Moneyline

• Chicago White Sox -172
• Detroit Tigers +144

Total

• OVER 9.5 (-105)
• UNDER 9.5 (-115)

Run Line

• Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+100)
• Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-120)

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Tuesday, September 21, 2021 at 8:00 a.m. ET. Want to see betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for the day’s other MLB matchups? Check out our MLB odds.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Consensus

Moneyline

• 50% Chicago White Sox
• 50% Detroit Tigers

Total (at O/U 9.5)

• 50% OVER
• 50% UNDER

Run Line (at -/+1.5)

• 25% Chicago White Sox
• 75% Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Matchup: MLB Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Outlook

This series opened last night with the Tigers edging the White Sox 4-3 in a tight affair. The teams matched each other in every inning expect for the eighth, where the Tigers scored the tie-breaking run.

It was the Tigers’ eighth win in 11 games, and it continues an overall impressive first season under A.J. Hinch. The Tigers were 11 games under .500 at the All-Star break but have a 33-27 record since. That’s actually better than the White Sox, who are 31-30 in the second half.

The White Sox have not needed to excel in recent months because the AL Central has not been a contest. But an ALDS matchup against the Houston Astros is ahead, and the White Sox need to be on their game. The Astros are trending up as we hit the home stretch, with wins in ten of their last 14 games. It would serve the White Sox well to themselves heat up before the playoffs.

Can Keuchel Turn Things Around in Time?

Keuchel certainly needs to heat up if he is to contribute to Chicago’s championship chase. The 2015 AL Cy Young winner has valuable postseason experience, but that experience only counts for so much when he is having one of the worst stretches of his career.

Keuchel started this season 6-1 with a 3.78 ERA in his first 14 starts, but he is 2-8 with a 7.10 ERA in his last 14 starts. The big culprit for his struggles is his form away from home. In his last eight road starts, he is 1-7 with an 8.06 ERA. He has allowed four or more runs in seven of those starts and has allowed 35 earned runs in 39.1 innings. In his last three road starts, he is 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA, allowing 17 runs (16 earned) in only 13.2 innings. It has not been pretty.

However, he did have his first quality start since August 5 last time out, allowing two runs and six hits in six innings against the Angels last Wednesday. But he got little run support, and he also issued a season-high five walks. Were it someone else other than the Angels, who have been mostly terrible offensively recently, Keuchel’s line might have looked a bit different.

This will be Alexander’s first start against the White Sox this season, though he has made five relief appearances. In five career starts against the White Sox, he is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA. As a starter this season, he is 1-2 with a 3.81 ERA in 12 starts.

MLB Betting Trends to Consider for Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers

• The Tigers average 4.16 runs per game at home for the season. But in September, they are averaging 5.38 runs per game at Comerica Park.
• The Tigers have scored four or more runs six times in eight home games in September.
• There have been nine or more total runs in five of the seven games that the White Sox and Tigers have played at Comerica Park this season.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Best Bets

Detroit Tigers Team Total OVER

Yes, Keuchel’s most recent start was positive in terms of him giving up only two runs. But as mentioned, he did allow six hits and five walks. So I’m not put off from liking this play, especially with his road struggles over the last three months.

Chicago White Sox Team Total OVER

Despite loving the Tigers to put some runs on the board against Keuchel, I like the White Sox to win. They have been pretty good against lefty starters this season, posting a 25-15 record. They also have one of the league’s best records following a loss in their previous game, coming in at 42-22 in this spot.

It does have to be said that Keuchel has not exactly gotten a ton of run support in many of his road starts. The White Sox have scored four or fewer runs in seven of the last ten games he has started and in each of his last five road starts. So if you happen to not like this one, it would be understandable. But this is a favorable matchup and situation for the visitors, and I look for the desire to wrap up the division title as soon as possible as a factor.

There is no value in the ML, and I don’t love particularly love the RL. The Tigers have played five extra-inning or one-run games over the last week or so, and they have also played a number of tight games against the White Sox this season. This has the best value with all of that in mind.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers OVER 9.5

I’ll preface this by saying that while I do like this one even at 9.5 because of how poorly Keuchel has pitched on the road, I would be all over this one if the number was 9 and not 9.5. No one likes to lose by the hook, whether it’s MLB betting, NFL, NBA, or anything else.

There is a possibility that it does drop to 9 by game time, but if not, don’t fret. Here’s where a scoreless start could open a prime live betting opportunity to grab the total at a better number. That’s always a risk, but the White Sox score in the first inning in less than 30 percent of their road games, and the Tigers score in the first inning in less than 30 percent of their home games. I’m okay with taking the risk.