Brewers vs. Diamondbacks (September 3): Will Burnes, Brew Crew dig deep in the desert?

After another disappointing day for the Milwaukee Brewers, tonight’s matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks represents a must-win game for Corbin Burnes and the Brew Crew.

It will take a near-miracle at this point for Milwaukee to somehow overhaul St. Louis in the division, so their best hope for the postseason lies in landing an NL wild-card spot.

With a stretch against the Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Giants, and Reds, the opportunity is there for them to rack up some wins before things get tougher.

But after series wins over Chicago and Pittsburgh, the Brewers have dropped the first two games of their series at Chase Field with Brandon Woodruff and Eric Lauer on the mound.

A series win can’t happen now, but they need to come away with a split to either gain ground or avoid losing more ground. To do that, not only do they need Burnes to find his form, but they also need the bats to wake up after two poor performances in Phoenix.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Venue & Location: Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• Game Time: 8:10 p.m. Eastern Time (5:10 p.m. local time)

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup

• Milwaukee Brewers: Corbin Burnes (2022: 26 starts, 9-6, 2.84 ERA)
• Arizona Diamondbacks: Madison Bumgarner (2022: 26 starts, 6-13, 4.87 ERA)

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended sportsbooks may also appear in this article.

Moneyliine

• Milwaukee Brewers -198
• Arizona Diamondbacks +164

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-115)
• Under 7.5 (-105)

Run Line

• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115)
• Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-104)

Will Burnes and Bumgarner Bounce Back?

Burnes isn’t completely out of the running to repeat as the NL Cy Young winner, but his August hurt his hopes of being able to capitalize on any stumbles longtime favorite Sandy Alcantara happens to have.

Alcantara got taken deep by the Braves three times and gave up six runs last night in a loss in Atlanta, but he remains a -360 favorite at BetOnline.

Current NL Cy Young Odds

• Sandy Alcantara -360
• Max Fried & Julio Urias +1100
• Tony Gonsolin +2300
• Corbin Burnes +3200

But he enters today’s start having allowed 15 runs (12 earned), 19 hits, and five walks in 15.1 innings across his last three starts, with only 14 strikeouts recorded in that stretch.

He was hurt by allowing at least three runs in at least one inning in each of those starts and in four of his six August starts, and it is imperative for him to avoid that tonight at Chase Field if the Brewers are to win.

On Monday, Bumgarner exited after giving up a crooked number in the fourth inning, which wrapped up a rough start in which he allowed seven runs and 11 hits in just 3.2 innings.

But he got off the hook in a major way, as the D-backs rallied from 7-0 down for a 13-7 win over the Phillies.

Burnes’s rough spell might be temporary, but the same can’t be said with confidence with Bumgarner. He started the season 2-1 with a 1.79 ERA in his first seven starts, but he is 4-12 with a 5.76 ERA in 19 starts.

In those 19 starts, he has allowed four or more runs 11 times, including each of his last six starts, a stretch in which he is 0-4 with an 8.63 ERA (32.1 IP, 52 H, 33 R, 31 ER, 6 HR, 10 BB, 21 K).

In four home starts in August, the veteran lefty allowed 22 runs (21 earned), 36 hits, and five walks in just 20.2 IP, for an ERA of 9.15 and a WHIP of 1.98.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Picks

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Brewers to win

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Picks: Brewers -1.5 (Best Value: -110 at BetUS & BetMGM) & Brewers/Diamondbacks over 8 (Best Value: +100 at Bovada Sportsbook)

The Brewers are 29th in MLB in batting average against LHP (.217) and 28th in batting average in games started by LHP (.219).

Having to face their worst matchup after not getting much done against RHPs Merrill Kelly and Zach Davies isn’t ideal but facing one who is struggling mightily just what the doctor ordered.

There have been nine or more total runs scored in each of the last seven games Bumgarner has started at home, and I am looking for that run to continue tonight, even if Burnes happens to shake his recent struggles.

His last away start wasn’t so great, as he allowed seven runs (four earned) in 3.2 innings against the Dodgers.

But he has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 12 road starts this season, with Milwaukee posting an 8-4 record in those starts. And of the 16 wins that Milwaukee has in his starts this season, 11 have come by 2+ runs.

So, there is a lot of value in backing Burnes and the Brew Crew to pick up a much-needed win tonight in the desert.

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