Blue Jays vs. Twins (8/6): Will White have a winning debut with Toronto?

In one of the more important MLB series this weekend, the Minnesota Twins picked up a huge 10-inning win over the Toronto Blue Jays last night.

Tonight, Toronto will look to get their second win of the series behind new pitcher Mitch White, who joined the team via trade from the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline.

Few teams in the majors have been better than Toronto has been after a loss, so we should expect a strong response from the visitors tonight at Target Field.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (59-47, 25-26 away, 2nd in the AL East) vs. Minnesota Twins (56-50, 30-24 home, 1st in the AL Central)
• Venue & Location: Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
• Date: Saturday, August 6, 2022
• Game Time: 7:10 p.m. Eastern Time (6:10 p.m. local time)

Blue Jays vs. Twins Pitching Matchup

• Toronto Blue Jays: Mitch White (2022: 15 appearances – 10 starts, 1-2, 3.70 ERA)
• Minnesota Twins: Dylan Bundy (2022: 18 starts, 6-5, 5.04 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from other reputable online sports betting sites that we have reviewed in-depth may also be mentioned in this article.

Moneyline

• Toronto Blue Jays -122
• Minnesota Twins +104

Over/Under

• Over 9 (-110)
• Under 9 (-110)

Run Line

• Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+125)
• Minnesota Twins +1.5 (-150)

Trends Heavily Favor Toronto in Saturday Showdown

In the series opener on Thursday, strong pitching and hitting led Toronto to a 9-3 win, their 14th win in 18 games.

Last night, they staged an impressive comeback to tie things up in the ninth after trailing 5-0 after four innings. But they failed to score after loading the bases with one out in the top of the tenth, and the Twins walked it off in the bottom of the frame.

For tonight’s matchup, the odds and trends both favor Toronto.

Entering today, there are only four teams better than they are in responding to losses. In fact, the team that they are playing is the team directly ahead of them in the charts for that trend.

Record Following a Loss in the 2022 MLB Season

1. New York Mets – 29-9 (.763)
2. Atlanta Braves – 31-12 (.721)
3. Houston Astros – 27-11 (.711)
4. Minnesota Twins – 32-18 (.640)
5. Toronto Blue Jays – 29-17 (.630)

The Twins, however, don’t do very well with following up wins. At 24-31 (.436) thus far this season, they have the 10th-worst winning percentage following a win. The nine worst teams all have losing records, and the other division winners come in 30th (Dodgers), 29th (Yankees), 28th (Astros), 25th (Brewers), and 24th (Mets).

The Twins have also been terrible in games in which they have been an underdog at home. They have won only four times in 15 games as a home underdog this season. The last time Minnesota had a losing record as a home underdog was 2017, when they went 13-18 in that scenario.

Toronto also boasts a far better win percentage than the Twins in non-division games. In such games, Toronto is 39-28 (.582, 7th in MLB), while Minnesota is 29-30 (.492, 17th in MLB).

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Picks

Blue Jays vs. Twins Prediction: Blue Jays to win

Blue Jays vs. Twins Picks: Blue Jays ML (Best Value: -120 at Bovada Sportsbook & BetMGM) & team total over 4.5 runs (Best Value: -110 at BetMGM) + Blue Jays/Twins over 9 (Best Value: -110 at BetOnline, Bovada Sportsook & BetMGM)

Toronto’s lineup features a lot of right-handed hitters, but they are first in the league in batting average against right-handed pitchers (.267) and first in batting average against right-handed starting pitchers (.275).

In fact, only other team is even batting in the .260s against right-handed starting hurlers. That would be the Dodgers, who entered today with a .263 average against right-handed starters.

Also, Toronto averages more than 5.2 runs per game in games started by a righty, while they average just over three and a half runs per game in games started by a southpaw starter.

So, that doesn’t really bode well for Bundy, especially when you note the fact that he allowed six runs and eight hits in 2.1 innings in his lone start against Toronto this season.

That start on June 4, a 12-3 Blue Jays win, was in Toronto, but it is nonetheless ominous when Bundy comes in with a 6.98 ERA (15 earned runs allowed in 19.1 innings) in his last four starts and when Toronto averages 4.98 runs per game on the road, which makes them only one of five teams currently averaging at least 4.9 runs per game on the road.

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