White Sox vs Yankees Preview: Opt for the Over in Favorable Matchup for Hitters On Both Sides

Can today’s White Sox vs Yankees game top last night’s? It will be rather tough for it to.

Both starters turned in stellar performances. White Sox starter Carlos Rodon struck out a career-high 13 and allowed only two hits in six shutout innings. Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery went an inning longer, struck out 11, and allowed only four hits without allowing a run. Notably, neither starter issued a walk.

The game was decided in the ninth, when things got a little wild. With the game tied 1-1, the White Sox put two runners on with no outs against Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman. But just as quickly as trouble started, it was ended in the form of a clutch triple play.

The @Yankees turn their first triple play since 2014 and it was a clutch one!

(MLB x @BudSelect) pic.twitter.com/KESiicePIs

— MLB (@MLB) May 22, 2021

So what does this afternoon’s game have in store? With two top starters taking the hill again, will another pitchers’ duel take place? Can the White Sox even the series, or will the Yankees wrap up the series win behind AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole?

Chicago White Sox (26-17) vs New York Yankees (26-19), MLB Network, 1:05 pm ET

Pitching Matchup: Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees

• Chicago White Sox: Dylan Cease
• New York Yankees: Gerrit Cole

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Odds

• Moneyline: White Sox +184, Yankees -220
• Total: OVER 8 (-105), UNDER 8 (-114)
• Run Line: White Sox +1.5 (-118), Yankees -1.5 (-102)

White Sox vs Yankees odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Saturday, May 22 at 9:25 am ET. For more MLB betting odds, check out our MLB odds, featuring updated odds from BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks.

Is the Under the Play Today?

At first glance, the under might appear to be the obvious total play, based on the pitching matchup. At BetOnline Sportsbook, Cole is the AL Cy Young favorite at +100. Cease is eighth on their AL Cy Young odds list, coming in at +4000.

After failing to pitch five full innings in any of his first four starts, Cease is 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last four starts. Cole is coming off of his worst outing of the season, in which he allowed five runs and seven hits in five innings in a loss to the Texas Rangers on Monday. But prior to that performance, Cole had seven consecutive quality starts. And in that seven-start stretch, he had five double-digit strikeout outings and was 5-1 with a 1.13 ERA.

But the over actually stacks up as the better value total option. Cease is a fly-ball pitcher, with a fly-ball rate of 42.9 percent entering today. That plays into the hands of the Yankees, who are significantly better against fly-ball pitchers than any other matchup. Against fly-ball pitchers, the Yankees are hitting .248, while they are hitting .215 against all other pitchers. Sure, .248 is not stellar, but it is notable for a team that is hitting .228 overall this season.

The White Sox should have some success at the plate against Cole as well. Few pitchers miss bats as well as Cole, who is fourth in MLB in strikeouts (85) and strikeouts per nine innings (13.3). And he does it while also not being generous with free passes, with allowing five walks to his name in 57.2 innings.

But Cole has an even higher fly ball rate than Cease, coming in at 45.9 percent, and teams have a greater chance of success against him when there is a vast discrepancy between fly balls and ground balls, especially if he’s also not racking up high strikeout numbers at the same time. That was the case against the Rangers, with 10 fly balls in play and four ground balls.

The White Sox, who are third in MLB in batting average at .258, are in the top ten in the league in fewest strikeouts (379, an average of 8.8 strikeouts per game). Against fly-ball and average fly-ball/ground-ball pitchers, they are hitting .262 with 59 (of their 71) doubles, 35 (of their 41) homers, and have scored 184 of their 223 runs this season. So win or lose, the White Sox should do their part to contribute to the total.

The under has a significant edge with a listed total of O/U 8, where it once again is at BetOnline Sportsbook after shifting from 8 to 7.5. It will be interesting to see if it remains at 8 or if it moves back to 7.5 before first pitch, but the over is good value and the better total play at either number.

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Consensus

• Moneyline: 50% White Sox, 50% Yankees
• Total: 17% OVER, 83% UNDER (at O/U 8)
• Run Line: 67% White Sox +1.5, 33% Yankees -1.5

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More