Braves vs Brewers Preview: Ynoa Seeks Fifth Straight Win as Braves Bid to Break Out Brooms Against Brew Crew

The first two games of the Braves vs Brewers series have not gone particularly well for the Brewers. As a result, the home team enters today’s series finale needing to avoid the sweep.

It’s been a winning weekend for the Braves in their former home of Milwaukee. The Braves have taken the first two games in Milwaukee after being swept at home by the Toronto Blue Jays in midweek action. Can they sweep the Brewers to enter a huge home series with the rival New York Mets at the .500 mark? Here’s our look at today’s Braves vs Brewers matchup and where the betting value is in this afternoon’s showdown.

Atlanta Braves (19-20) vs Milwaukee Brewers (20-20), Bally Sports Wisconsin, 2:10 pm ET

Pitching Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers

• Atlanta Braves: Huascar Ynoa (4-1, 2.23 ERA)
• Milwaukee Brewers: Freddy Peralta (3-1, 2.77 ERA)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Braves +100, Brewers -118
• Total: OVER 7 (-115), UNDER 7 (-104)
• Run Line: Braves +1.5 (-220), Brewers -1.5 (+180)

Braves vs Brewers odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Sunday, May 16 at 11:45 am ET. For more MLB betting odds, check out our MLB odds, featuring updated odds from BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks.

Can the Brewers Solve Ynoa?

After coming within a win of reaching the World Series, the Braves were expected to make another run this season. Along with a lineup led by NL MVP Freddie Freeman, a youthful, talented rotation was to be key.

Well, things haven’t quite gone according to plan. But things are starting to look up, even if expected ace Mike Soroka suffered a setback in his recovery from a torn Achilles and has exploratory surgery pending. Drew Smyly has won his two May starts after a tough April, Ian Anderson is getting in the groove again, and Max Fried has pitched well in his two starts after returning from a hamstring injury.

But the brightest and most consistent spot thus far has been Ynoa. The 22-year-old is aiming for his fifth straight win today. Since his lone bad outing, when he gave up six runs in four innings against the Cubs on April 17, Ynoa is 4-0 with a 1.12 ERA in his last four starts.

He’s also given himself some handy support at the plate. In 15 at-bats, he has recorded six hits, with a double, two homers, and six RBI. One of his two homers was this no-doubt grand slam against the Washington Nationals almost two weeks ago.

PITCHER GRAND SLAM 😱😱

The Braves (-130 ML) lead 6-0 after Huascar Ynoa hit a 427 ft bomb

(via @BravesOnBally)
pic.twitter.com/0sIgSDxhxj

— br_betting (@br_betting) May 5, 2021

If there is one negative with Ynoa, it is that he has given up six homers. However, three of those round-trippers came in the ugly loss to the Cubs. Overall, he has limited the mistakes. He has allowed only 27 hits and nine walks in 40.1 IP, and his 0.89 WHIP ranks 10th in the league entering today.

Poor Plate Performance Plaguing Brewers at Home

Based on what Milwaukee has, or rather has not, done at the plate thus far, things trend toward Ynoa having another solid outing today. The Brewers are third-worst in the league in batting average (.211), fourth-worst in strikeouts (399 – almost 10 per game), and fifth-worst in runs scored (143 – 3.6 runs per game). At home, where they are 9-12 this season, the Brewers are averaging 3.19 runs per game and hitting only .207.

Last night, Anderson took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning as the Braves clinched the series with a 5-1 win. The Brewers were 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position and are hitting .195 with runners in scoring position this season.

The key to improvement could be in working the count more frequently and applying more pressure to pitchers. On counts where the batter was ahead, the Brewers have hit .290 in 324 at-bats. But on counts that were even or favored the pitcher, they have hit .186 in 997 at-bats. Additionally, Milwaukee is hitting only .140 on two-strike counts.

Coming into today, the Brewers have lost four of five, all at home. In that stretch, they have scored only nine runs. If they can’t put enough pressure on Ynoa and have better at-bats, it might not matter how well Peralta pitches.

Peralta On Track for Career-Best Season

Milwaukee’s offensive struggles are spoiling some strong starting pitching. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are grabbing the headlines, but Peralta is off to a fine start as well. Entering today’s action, Peralta is tied for seventh in the league in strikeouts with 61, and he has a WHIP of only 0.95.

His last start was his best start of the season, as he allowed only one hit and one walk and struck out eight in seven shutout innings against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday. Unfortunately for Peralta, his stellar start was in vain, as the bullpen couldn’t hold a 1-0 lead and the Brewers fell 6-1 in 11 innings.

The Brewers are the consensus moneyline play in today’s MLB picks, but should they be? Backing them at home when they are having trouble scoring runs is a risky move, even with Peralta pitching so well. With Ynoa on the mound in the middle of a hot streak and a terrible matchup for Milwaukee’s struggling bats, the Braves are much better value here.

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Consensus

• Moneyline: 33% Braves, 67% Brewers
• Total: 50% OVER, 50% UNDER (at +/-7)
• Run Line: 0% Braves, 100% Brewers (at Braves -1.5/Brewers +1.5)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More