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Astros vs. Red Sox May 16 Betting: Back Odorizzi to continue strong stretch vs. struggling Sox
Written by: Eddie Griffin
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Read Time: 5 minutes
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameThe Houston Astros saw their 11-game win streak come to an end on Saturday, but the end of a streak means the chance to start a new one. And after getting back in the win column on Sunday, the Astros will look to start the last series of their current road swing with another win as they visit the Boston Red Sox.
On Saturday, Houston’s win streak came to a screeching halt with a 13-6 loss to the Washington Nationals, who own the worst home record in the majors. But there was to be no Sunday stumble for the Astros, who bounced back with an 8-0 win to secure the series.
The Astros are 5-1 on their current three-series, nine-game road trip as they prepare for an ALCS rematch with the Red Sox. While Houston looks primed for a run at another American League pennant, the Red Sox currently sit in last place in the AL East.
But they return home after registering their first series win in almost a month, and they will be aiming to further the momentum gained in their series win over the Texas Rangers with a good showing against another opponent from the AL West.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 16 Betting Odds and Matchup Information
Matchup Information
- Matchup: Houston Astros (23-12, 14-8 road, 1st in the AL West) vs. Boston Red Sox (13-21, 4-9 home, 5th in the AL East)
- Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)
- Date: Monday, May 16, 2022
- Time: 7:10 p.m. Eastern Time
- How to Watch Today’s Astros vs. Red Sox Game: AT&T Sports Southwest (Astros), NESN (Red Sox), MLB Extra Innings (subscription package)
Astros vs. Red Sox Probable Starting Pitching Matchup for Today
- Houston Astros: Jake Odorizzi (2022: 6 starts, 3-2, 3.38 ERA)
- Boston Red Sox: Garrett Whitlock (2022: 8 appearances – 4 starts, 1-1, 2.19 ERA)
Today’s Astros vs. Red Sox Odds
Odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be included in this article.
Moneyline
- Houston Astros +114
- Boston Red Sox -134
Over/Under
- OVER 9 (-120)
- UNDER 9 (-102)
Run Line
- Houston Astros +1.5 (-176)
- Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+146)
Odorizzi Out to Continue Outstanding Run with Fourth Straight Win
In his first season in Houston, Odorizzi made 23 starts and went 6-7 with a 4.21 ERA, and he made two postseason appearances and posted a 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP.
It wasn’t a spectacular return, but with Justin Verlander missing the season and the Astros employing a six-man rotation, Odorizzi filled his role adequately enough.
This season, the veteran righty is a helpful asset again, as Lance McCullers continues to work his way towards being available eventually.
Odorizzi didn’t start well, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his first three starts. But after lasting only two-thirds of an inning and allowing six runs in a home loss to the Los Angeles Angels on April 20, his fortunes have flipped.
Over his last three starts, Odorizzi is 3-0 with a 0.51 ERA. Whatever he did between that rough start against the Angels and his following start, it worked, because it has been a heck of a turnaround.
Pitching Splits for Jake Odorizzi in 2022
- First Three Starts: 0-2, 9.00 ERA, 9.0 IP, 16 H, 12 R (9 ER), 7 BB, 5 K
- Last Three Starts: 3-0, 0.51 ERA, 17.2 IP, 6 H, R (earned), 4 BB, 12 K
As it happens, this turnaround is actually par for the course, given his career splits.
- March/April: 37 starts, 10-15, 4.34 ERA
- May: 40 starts, 14-8, 3.03 ERA
May is his best stretch with regards to win percentage, ERA, WHIP, and K/BB ratio. Since 2018, he is 7-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 14 starts in May. His last May loss was on May 11, 2017, against the Kansas City Royals while with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Thus far this month, he tossed 6.2 shutout innings and allowed just four hits and a walk in a win over the Seattle Mariners on May 2, then pitched five shutout innings and allowed only one hit and two walks in a win over the Detroit Tigers on May 8.
With how well he is pitching at present and his career numbers in May, is there better betting value on the board today? (Well, actually, there may be, but we’re covering that elsewhere.)
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 16 Prediction and Best Bets
Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction: Astros to win
Astros vs. Red Sox Best Bets: Astros ML (+114 at BetOnline) & Astros -1.5 (+174 at BetOnline)
Is the wrong team favored here? The Red Sox are at home, and Whitlock has been one of the best arms on Boston’s staff this season. But everything else lines up heavily in favor of Odorizzi and the Astros, to the point that the -1.5 for the Astros is every bit as worthwhile of an investment as the ML is.
The lone caveat is that Odorizzi has not historically had a lot of success at Fenway Park. In 11 starts, he is just 2-4 with a 6.18 ERA. But he won his lone Fenway start last season, striking out six and allowing three runs, three hits, and a walk in an 8-3 win on June 9.
The Red Sox have spent most of the last month on the road, but they return home with seven losses in their last eight home games, and seven of their nine home losses this season have come by multiple runs.
On the flip side, all of Houston’s five wins on their current road swing, 11 of their 14 road wins, and 16 of their 23 overall wins this season have been by multiple runs, including the four Odorizzi starts that they have won.
With those percentages, the ML and -1.5 RL should be among the top bets on your MLB betting board today.
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