Astros vs. Mariners (May 27): Flexen’s woes to continue against Verlander, Astros

It has been a miserable month for the Seattle Mariners, and things are unlikely to get any better tonight as they welcome AL Cy Young Award favorite Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros to T-Mobile Park.

After just missing out on the MLB playoffs last season, the Mariners entered this season with hopes of finally reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001.

Seattle started 11-6, but the wheels have since come off, and they enter tonight’s matchup with eight losses in their last 10 games and 21 losses in their last 28 games.

If they want to arrest that slide this weekend against the AL West-leading Astros, a strong start tonight would be a big help. But that will require solving Verlander, which few have been able to do this season.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Houston Astros (29-16, 15-10 road, 1st in the AL West) vs. Seattle Mariners (18-27, 10-9 home, 5th in the AL West)
• Venue & Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, Washington)
• Date: Friday, May 27, 2022
• Time: 9:40 p.m. Eastern Time (6:40 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Today’s Astros vs. Mariners Game: AT&T SportsNet Southwest (Astros), ROOT Sports Northwest (Mariners), MLB Extra Innings (subscription package)

Astros vs. Mariners Pitching Matchup

• Houston Astros: Justin Verlander (2022: 8 starts, 6-1, 1.22 ERA)
• Seattle Mariners: Chris Flexen (2022: 8 starts, 1-6, 4.98 ERA)

Astros vs. Mariners Odds

Odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended online sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

• Houston Astros -194
• Seattle Mariners +162

Over/Under

• OVER 7 (-120)
• UNDER 7 (-102)

Run Line

• Houston Astros -1.5 (-114)
• Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-105)

Extreme Opposites on Mound as Struggling Flexen Duels Cy Young Favorite Verlander

After a breakout debut season for the Mariners last season, things have not gone well for Flexen thus far this season.

His first five starts more about a lack of run support. He posted three quality starts in five starts and had a 3.10 ERA in those starts, but he received all of five runs of support. Four of those runs came in one start, with the Mariners, getting shut out in three starts and managing only one run in the other.

His own form has gone downhill over his last three starts, as he is 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA in that stretch. In 14.1 innings, he has allowed 14 runs (all earned), 23 hits, six walks, and six homers.

In his most recent start, he got his most run support of the season, as the Mariners scored five runs at Boston this past Saturday. But he also allowed five runs, eight hits, three walks, and two homers in four innings and received a no-decision in a 6-5 Red Sox win.

While things could not be going much worse for Flexen, they could not be going much better for Verlander in his return to action for the Astros after two injury-affected seasons.

In four May starts, the three-time AL Cy Young winner is 4-0 with a 0.70 ERA. In 25.2 innings, he has allowed only two runs. And he has been especially stingy over his last three starts, as he has not allowed a single run across 19 innings.

It is no surprise then that he is a +450 favorite to capture his fourth Cy Young this season, ahead of Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (+500), Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan (+750), and Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (+900).

Astros vs. Mariners Prediction and Best Bets

Astros vs. Mariners Prediction: Astros to win

Astros vs. Mariners Best Bets: Astros -1.5 (-114 at BetOnline)

In five road starts this season, Verlander is 4-1 with a miniscule .055 ERA. Opponents are batting just .124 against him in his road starts, registering just 13 hits in 33 innings.

In their previous home series against the Astros this season, the Mariners won two of three and scored 11 and seven runs in their two wins. However, the middle game was a 4-0 Astros win with this pitching matchup on the mound.

Such an outcome is the more likely one tonight, given where both teams are at the moment and how trends break down for this matchup. Seattle, who lost its most recent game, is 10-16 after a loss, while Houston, who won its most recent game, is 17-11 after a win.

Additionally, the Astros are 25-11 as a favorite this season, while the Mariners are 10-20 as an underdog.

There isn’t a lot of moneyline value for tonight’s matchup, but there is plenty of run line value. Of the Astros’ 15 road wins, 12 have come by 2+ runs, while seven of the Mariners’ nine home losses and 20 of their 27 overall losses this season–including five of the seven Flexen starts they have lost–have been by 2+ runs.