Angels vs Padres Prediction & Picks (July 4): Expect Ohtani-Musgrove Pitching Duel

Just because it’s Independence Day in the United States doesn’t mean a break in the baseball action. Tuesday, July 4’s MLB schedule includes the second matchup of a three-game series between the Los Angeles Angels and San Diego Padres. After last night’s contest ended in lopsided fashion, time will tell if tonight’s Angels vs Padres clash sees a similar result.

FINAL: #Padres 10, Angels 3#PadresWin | #BringTheGold pic.twitter.com/lPbQjzPvYL

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 4, 2023

The Padres put on a dominant performance Monday night, cruising to a 10-3 victory over the Angels. The San Diego trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Jake Cronenworth did the majority of the damage, each recording multiple hits and exactly three RBIs apiece.

Can the Angels prove that last night’s unfortunate performance was a fluke? Or will the Padres give the hometown crowd something to cheer about again?

Here’s a look at everything you know heading into this evening’s Angels vs Padres showdown, from the latest betting odds to a prediction with the best betting recommendation, courtesy of Betting News.

Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres Game Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Los Angeles Angels (45-42, 22-22 Away) vs. San Diego Padres (39-46, 21-22 Home)
• Venue & Location: Petco Park (San Diego, California)
• Date: Tuesday, July 4, 2023
• Game Time: 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time
• Where to Watch Angels vs Padres: TBS, Fox Sports West, MLB.TV

Angels vs Padres Odds

Game odds as of Tuesday, July 4 at 8:57 a.m. ET from Bovada. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-195)
• San Diego Padres -1.5 (+165)

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 Runs (+100)
• Under 7.5 Runs (-120)

Moneyline

• Los Angeles Angels +113
• San Diego Padres -135

Angels vs Padres Starting Pitchers

• Angels: Shohei Ohtani (16 starts — 7-3, 3.02 ERA)
• Padres: Joe Musgrove (12 starts—6-2, 3.80 ERA)

Angels vs Padres Betting Trends

• The Angels are 8-4 straight up in their last 12 games against San Diego.
• San Diego is 4-2 straight up in its last six games played in July.
• The total has hit the under in 10 of the Angels’ last 14 games.
• The total has hit the over in six of San Diego’s last eight home games.
• The total has hit the over in three of the last four Angels-Padres matchups.

Angels vs Padres Game Preview

Despite being one of the better American League teams this season, the Angels have halted as of late. Not only are they 4-9 in their last 13 outings, but they’ve also one just one of their last six games following last night’s loss.

It’s not like the losses over the last six games have been close either. The Angels have been outscored 41-23 on aggregate over that stretch, which translates to a minus-3 average run margin.

The good news for the Angels is that they have a good chance of winning anytime that Shohei Ohtani takes the mound. He’s been one of the better pitchers this season, going 7-3 with a 3.02 ERA. If that isn’t impressive enough, he also leads the MLB when it comes to hits (5.7) and strikeouts (12.0) per nine innings.

Of course, Ohtani’s arm isn’t the only thing he brings to the table. The Japanese phenom’s bat has also been one of the most electric during the 2023 MLB season. On top of his strong pitching numbers, Ohtani also leads the Majors in home runs (31), triples (5), slugging percentage (.664), and on-base + slugging percentage (1.054).

The sound off of Shohei Ohtani's bat is unmatched. 🤯

(MLB X @googlecloud) pic.twitter.com/0MHBTNcLUc

— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2023

Although he doesn’t have the same batting talents, the Padres’ Joe Musgrove has what it takes to match Ohtani on the mound. The El Cajon, California native is in the midst of one of his better campaigns, amassing a 6-2 record while pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 66 1/3 innings.

On top of that, Musgrove has his fair share of strong past performances against the Angels. He’s gone head-to-head with Los Angeles seven times (three starts) throughout his career, going 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.000 WHIP.

And as talented as the Angels’ bats can be, it’s tough saying whether or not they’ll get the job done against Musgrove. For example, Taylor Ward has been held to a .217 batting average without a home run in his last 13 games (46 at-bats). Ohtani and Mike Trout — as fantastic as they are — have also struck out a combined 34 times over that stretch.

The Angels have also dropped four of their last six road games, allowing 10 runs twice over that span. Meanwhile, the Padres at least have an 8-5 record in their previous 13 home games and have won four of the last six.

In other words, things look positive for the home team heading into tonight’s Angels vs Padres matchup.

Angels vs Padres Prediction and Picks

Angels vs Padres Prediction: Padres 4, Angels 3

Angels vs Padres Best Bet: Under 7.5 Total Runs (Best Value: -120 ) & Padres ML (Best Value: -135)

After yesterday’s blowout win, I’m taking the Padres to win again tonight. The Angels haven’t been playing well over the last few weeks and even though Ohtani is playing well, the rest of the team is struggling to keep games close. Having the home-field advantage will pay off for San Diego as it continues its climb to the .500 mark.

Another Angels vs Padres bet I recommend is taking the under on the 7.5-run total. Although the two sides combined for 13 runs last night, that likely won’t be the case this evening due to how well Ohtani and Musgrove are pitching. They’ve been two of the better pitchers in all of baseball this season and I don’t expect that to change any time soon.

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