2022 MLB Home Run Derby Odds & Picks: Will Alonso tie Griffey with three Derby wins?

In the history of the MLB Home Run Derby, no one has won it on three consecutive occasions. That could change tonight if New York Mets slugger Pete “Polar Bear” Alonso can beat out a stacked field at Dodger Stadium.

To date, only one player has even won the Home Run Derby three times. That would be Ken Griffey Jr., who won in 1994, 1998, and 1999.

Last year, Alonso matched Griffey and Yoenis Cespedes (2013 and 2014) as the only players to win on back-to-back occasions, though unlike the other two, Alonso’s titles did not come in consecutive years, thanks to the pandemic-shortened season in 2020.

In 2019, Alonso defeated Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 23-22 in an epic final round at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and he defeated Trey Mancini of the Baltimore Orioles by the same score last year at Coors Field in Denver.

Of this year’s Home Run Derby participants, the longest career homer belongs to Alonso, who walloped a 489-foot blast on July 17, 2019. However, the longest blast this year among the eight participants belongs to Schwarber, who hit a 468-foot moonshot on April 20 against the Colorado Rockies.

Here’s a look at the full field for this year’s Derby, which features stars of today, tomorrow, and yesterday.

2022 MLB Home Run Derby Participants and Seedings

Number of home runs in 2022 listed in parentheses.

1. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (29)
2. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (22)
3. Pete Alonso, New York Mets (24)
4. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals (20)
5. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (19)
6. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (8)
7. Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners (16)
8. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals (6)

Unsurprisingly, the two-time defending champion is the favorite. But he might be in for some stiff competition.

Schwarber, who is second in MLB in homers, behind only Aaron Judge, who hit his league-leading 32nd and 33rd homers in the Yankees’ rout of the Red Sox on Saturday. The field includes Alonso’s semifinal opponents from 2019 (Acuna) and 2021 (Soto), both of whom he edged out by just one homer.

Odds to Win the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby

Odds are via BetOnline.

• Pete Alonso, New York Mets +195
• Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies +350
• Juan Soto, Washington Nationals +500
• Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners +750
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves +800
• Corey Seager, Texas Rangers +1000
• Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians +1600
• Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals +2400

2022 MLB Home Run Derby Bracket

First Round

#1 Kyle Schwarber vs. #8 Albert Pujols

#4 Juan Soto vs. #5 Jose Ramirez

#3 Pete Alonso vs. #6 Ronald Acuna Jr.

#2 Corey Seager vs. #7 Julio Rodriguez

Semifinals

Schwarber/Pujols winner vs. Soto/Ramirez winner

Alonso/Acuna winner vs. Seager/Rodriguez winner

Finals

Schwarber/Soto/Ramirez/Pujols vs. Seager/Alonso/Acuna/Rodriguez

What Is This Year’s MLB Home Run Derby Format?

In the first and second rounds, each player will have three minutes of regulation time to hammer as many homers as possible, while the rounds in the finals are two minutes long.

Each participant will get a guaranteed 30 seconds of bonus time after regulation time is up, and they can get another 30 seconds of bonus time by hitting at least one homer of 475 feet or more.

Who Will Win the Home Run Derby?

Pete Alonso (+195)

There is certainly a compelling argument from a value standpoint to back Schwarber, who is on pace to shatter his previous career high in homers (38, which he hit in 2019 with the Chicago Cubs).

And there is an argument for someone further down the charts like Acuna, because if he can see off Alonso in the first round, you have to like his chances of going all the way. Acuna’s power numbers may be down thus far this season, but he can put a charge into one just as well as anyone in this field.

But until someone dethrones the king, Alonso is the man to beat, without a doubt.