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Canada vs Spain Olympic Men’s Basketball Prediction & Picks: Can Canada Run It Up?

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Canada vs Spain Olympic Men's Basketball Prediction & Picks cover RJ Barrett

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After winning their first two games in the Olympic men’s basketball tournament, Canada is already safely through to the quarterfinals. Today, they will look to wrap up Group A play with a perfect record and perhaps deny Spain a place in the last eight (11:15 am ET, NBC).

It hasn’t been all smooth sailing so far for Canada, as they had to hold off a late rally by Greece last Saturday and turn things around in the second half against Australia on Tuesday.

But they are two for two, and making it three for three will see them lock up first place in Group A.

It could also see them eliminate Spain from quarterfinal contention, depending on the outcome of the Australia-Greece game.

Spain is 1-1 after losing to Australia on Saturday and defeating Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece on Tuesday. For now, they and South Sudan are on track for the quarterfinals as the two best third-place teams, but a Greece win by three or more points and a Spain loss could doom Spain to fourth, depending on Greece’s margin of victory over Australia.

Part of that will be moot if Australia takes care of business against Greece, as that will lock Spain into third. But Spain will still need to avoid a blowout loss in order to ensure they finish ahead of the Japan-Brazil winner and/or the third-place team in Group C (likely South Sudan) to lock up a quarterfinal spot on point differential.

Canada vs Spain Odds

Spread

Canada -9 (-110)
Spain +9 (-110)

Over/Under

Over 168.5 (-110)
Under 168.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Canada -400
Spain +320

See more Canada vs Spain odds at BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a bonus to bet on this blockbuster Olympic women’s basketball tournament matchup.

Canada vs Spain Betting Analysis

Spain isn’t the only team that may be thinking of point differential when this contest tips off.

Finishing as one of the two best first-place teams could mean a matchup with one of the two best third-place teams, and facing either Brazil, Japan, or South Sudan is a much friendlier draw than, say, Serbia or the loser of today’s Group B finale between France and Germany.

Entering the final round of group games, Canada’s point differential is +17, which is superior to France’s (+16) but inferior to Germany’s (+33) and the USA’s (+43).

Therefore, Canada may need to put forth their best and most complete performance of group play.

In their opener, Canada let Greece make things interesting late after leading by a dozen points with just over three minutes remaining. They did what they needed to do to close out a seven-point win, but stuttering to the finish could be costly with point differential in mind.

In their matchup with Australia, Canada trailed at halftime, but they shot 55.9% in the second half and held the Boomers to only 13 fourth-quarter points in a ten-point win.

One thing that Canada has done rather well thus far is defend the three. Greece (9 of 32, 28.1%) and Australia (8 of 25, 32%) combined to make just 29.8% of their threes. That success will have to continue against Spain, who was 15 of 31 (48.4%) from outside against Greece and hit multiple big triples in the fourth quarter to help secure their 84-77 win.

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Canada vs Spain Prediction & Picks

I don’t see Spain pulling the upset here, so they will have to hope that Australia will have already removed any drama before tip-off by taking out Greece.

The result of that contest won’t necessarily alter Spain’s approach here, as they will still need to ensure they are, at the very least, one of the top two third-place teams.

I do think Spain will be able to stick within striking distance for a while and like them to cover the first-half spread, but I also think that Canada will be able to pull away in the second half to pad their point differential.

My favorite bets, however, are a couple of props. Memphis Grizzlies forward Santi Aldama has been Spain’s best player thus far in the Olympics, leading the way with 27 points and five rebounds against Australia and doing so again against Greece with 19 points and 12 rebounds.

For Canada, RJ Barrett, not Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has been their leading scorer. He had 23 points (and four rebounds and three assists) against Greece, then bettered that with 24 points, seven rebounds, and five assists against Australia.

Look for both to continue their strong play today, though it will be Barrett and Canada coming out on the winning end.

Canada vs Spain Prediction: Canada to win

Canada vs Spain Picks: 1) Spain first half +5 (-115 at BetOnline), 2 & 3) Santi Aldama (Spain) over 17.5 points (-125 at Bovada) and over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-135 at Bovada), 4) RJ Barrett (Canada) over 19.5 points (-130 at Bovada)

Other Olympic Men’s Basketball Betting Information

Where to Bet on Canada vs Spain & the Olympic Men’s Basketball Tournament

With NBA stars like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Victor Wembanyama taking part, the Olympic men’s basketball tournament is garnering a lot of betting interest from far and wide. Therefore, bettors have no shortage of options for where to bet on Olympic men’s basketball tournament odds.

The odds in this piece come from BetOnline, which has a wealth of betting markets for this event and other Paris 2024 events.

Including BetOnline, below are some of the sites that we recommend for betting on the Olympics.

Best Betting Sites for the Olympics

Are you unfamiliar with any of the sites listed? Check out our reviews for each site to learn more about them. Our sportsbook reviews cover available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile betting, and bonuses and loyalty/VIP programs.

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