Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili UFC Betting: Back Aldo to Pull Off the Upset

UFC 278 is lining up to be quite an exciting event this weekend. While there are many bouts to look forward to at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah this Saturday night, one that should grab fans’ attention is a bantamweight showdown between Jose Aldo (31-7) and Merab Dvalishvili (14-4).

Both fighters are some of the best that the bantamweight division has to offer. A former UFC Featherweight Champion, Aldo comes in as the No. 3-ranked bantamweight in the company while Dvalishvili clocks in at No. 6.

A win would bring either man one step closer to challenging for Aljamain Sterling’s crown.

There’s a lot to take into account ahead of this UFC 278 bout, but Betting News has you covered. Here is a look at the latest Aldo vs. Dvalishvili odds from various sportsbooks before the duo collide on Saturday.

UFC 278: Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili Fight Odds (as of Friday, Aug. 19)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Jose Aldo +114
• Merab Dvalishvili -146

Bovada Sportsbook

• Jose Aldo +120
• Merab Dvalishvili -140

BetUS

• Jose Aldo +116
• Merab Dvalishvili -143

BetMGM

• Jose Aldo +115
• Merab Dvalishvili -140

Aldo, Dvalishvili Set for Close Matchup

While each highlight sportsbook has Dvalishvili winning at UFC 278, the odds indicate that it could actually be a fairly even fight.

Dvalishvili’s best odds to win sit at -146 on BetOnline Sportsbook. Those odds only translate to an implied probability of 59.4%. In other words, this could be one of the closer showdowns on the entire card.

Nevertheless, Dvalishvili has been on a roll for quite a bit of time now. After losing to Ricky Simon at UFC Fight Night 128 back in April 2018, “The Machine” has since won seven straight fights.

He’s dominated the completion, winning six straight by unanimous decision before a TKO victory over Marlon Moraes in his last fight at UFC 266.

At the same time, you can’t count Aldo out just yet. While he’s known for his featherweight work, the former 2009 Sherdog Fighter of the Year made the transition to the bantamweight world back in 2019.

At first, things didn’t go well. Aldo lost a split decision to Moraes before losing via TKO to Petr Yan for the vacant UFC Bantamweight Championship. However, the 35-year-old Brazilian has since turned things around.

Aldo has since won three straight fights — all by unanimous decision — over the likes of Marlon Vera, Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font. It may have taken a while to get here, but it seems like the veteran has finally turned things around.

Nevertheless, it’ll be a style clash at UFC 278. On one hand, you have a well-known grappler in Dvalishvili, who averages 7.30 takedowns per 15 minutes. Meanwhile, Aldo has a 90% takedown defense rate, which could frustrate his opponent.

At the end of the day, this fight is shaping up to be one to remember. Only time will tell who wins in the end.

UFC 278 Betting Markets & Trends for Aldo vs. Dvalishvili

As usual, BetOnline Sportsbook has UFC 278 markets that let fans wager on more than just the moneyline. In fact, these markets can even give you an idea of how Aldo vs. Dvalishvili might unfold.

The most likely method of victory here is for Dvalishvili to win by decision at +135. He’s won each of his last six bouts that have gone the distance while he is 10-3 overall in that scenario.

As for Aldo, his likeliest method of victory is to also win by decision, albeit at +250 odds. He’s 13-2 when his fights head to the judges’ table.

It certainly seems like the fight could go the distance with BetOnline favoring it to do so at -210.

As for the top method & round combo, Aldo is favored to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +1000. He’s 17-4 in fights decided by knockout, however, he hasn’t won by KO/TKO in Round 1 in over four years.

Aldo vs. Dvalishvili Fight Prediction

Although it makes sense as to why Dvalishvili is the favorite, I like Aldo pulling off the upset at UFC 278. He has the experience to win on a big stage and his takedown defense could back his opponent into a corner. I also like Aldo’s chances of winning more of things turn into a striking match.

As for the best bet, though, I’ll take Aldo winning by decision at +250. Both men have been going the distance often lately, but I think Aldo is more capable of swaying the judges’ opinion.

UFC 278 Event Details

When is UFC 278?

UFC 278 will take place on Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022.

Where is UFC 278?

UFC 278 will take place at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah.

What time does UFC 278 start?

• UFC 278 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• UFC 278 Prelims Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 278’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 278?

The early prelims will be available on UFC Fight Pass, while the prelims will be available on both ESPN and ESPN+, and the main card will be available via pay-per-view (which can be ordered through the ESPN+ app).

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